The Memphis Grizzlies still face a steep uphill climb toward just making the play-in tournament. They're six games behind tenth-place in the Western Conference after winning back-to-back games for only the second time this season, at 8-19 entering Saturday's matchup with the Atlanta Hawks.
Ja Morant's return really has changed everything for the Grizzlies. But as far as the playoffs go, Memphis' chances have barely moved since he came back, much-needed optimism and momentum in Grind City be damned. Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and company have already been eliminated from contention for a play-in spot, according to Basketball Reference's playoff probabilities.
But that model doesn't account for Morant's singular presence going forward, nor both Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard returning to the court after extended injury absences. Just like Morant's availability forced two-way player and part-time starting point guard Jacob Gilyard to the end of the bench against the New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers, the heath of Smart and Kennard is poised to have a drastic effect on Taylor Jenkins' rotation. The same goes for Brandon Clarke's potential debut in March.
Which early-season stalwart stands to lose the most minutes as Memphis' roster slowly rounds into form? Sophomore forward David Roddy.
Why Grizzlies should bench David Roddy
The No. 23 overall pick of last year's draft, Roddy was acquired by Memphis on draft night in a cost-cutting trade that sent D'Anthony Melton and Danny Green to the Philadelphia 76ers. He averaged 6.7 points and 2.8 rebounds in 18.0 minutes per game as a rookie, hitting 55.3% of his twos and 30.7% of his triples while pressed into a three-and-D role that looked nothing like nothing like the one Roddy played while starring at Colorado State.
There was a hope coming into 2023-24 that he could take further strides as a one-on-one defender and three-point shooter while tapping back into the on-ball dynamism that made Roddy one of the most productive players in college basketball two years ago. That hasn't happened over the first two months of the regular season.
Roddy's scoring less often and less efficiency than he did in 2022-23, with decreases in both free throw rate and three-point rate. He's shooting an ugly 29.2% from deep, including 26.8% on “wide-open” looks absent a defender within six feet of him, per NBA.com/stats—which account for nearly half of his total attempts so far. Roddy has hardly made up for those offensive woes on the other side of the ball, either, recently getting past in the rotation by defense-first two-way player Vince Williams Jr.
That Roddy should lose minutes once Memphis gets healthy isn't even a notion anymore. Morant's return has already shoved him toward the very bottom of Taylor Jenkins' rotation. Roddy played a team-low nine minutes off the bench in New Orleans, then was a DNP-CD for Morant's home debut versus the Pacers as Jenkins rolled out a nine-man lineup.
Why would that trend change with the Grizzlies' best on-ball defender and three-point shooter soon getting back on the court? Roddy's theoretical peak hinges on him becoming a versatile, multi-positional defender who can reliably knock down triples at a high volume. Memphis has been searching for that player archetype for years, and Roddy's done very little save being shoehorned into it as a rookie to make anyone believe he'll ever come close to being that type of high-impact, take-nothing-off-the-table role player.
Ziaire Williams fits that bill on-paper, too. While his third season is hardly off to a promising start, he's at least better defending quick ball-handlers and a more dangerous halfcourt cutter and transition lob threat than Roddy—increasingly valuable traits with Morant back in the fold. Vince Williams Jr. is also a superior option checking perimeter playmakers, and is taking slightly more threes than Roddy while hitting them at 37.3% clip..
There's just no place for Roddy on this season's Grizzlies if he can't beat out Ziaire Williams and Vince Williams Jr. for minutes. His utility as a downsized power forward will be further mitigated by Clarke returning come March, giving Jenkins more size, athleticism and stylistic flexibility up front.
The best version of Memphis certainly involves Roddy taking a significant step forward. Every team in the league wants and needs the kind of player the Grizzlies seem to think he can become, especially during the playoffs. The influence of Morant's absence rippled across the roster, deflating team-wide and individual numbers, but it's nevertheless clear by now that Roddy's development has stalled.
What that means for his long-term future with the Grizzlies remains to be seen. As a healthy as possible Memphis squad fights tooth and nail to get back into the postseason picture, though, expect Roddy to play little more than bench bystander and cheerleader.
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