The 2022-23 NBA regular season is officially over, which means it's time for the Play-In Tournament. The action will get underway on Tuesday night, with both 7-8 games in each respective conference taking place first. In the Eastern Conference, the seven seeded Miami Heat will take on the eight seeded Atlanta Hawks in the first match of the East's Play-In bracket.

The 2022-23 season did not exactly go the way it was expected to for either of these teams, which is why they find themselves in the Play-In Tournament now. The Heat made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, but couldn't recapture that magic throughout an inconsistent campaign. The Hawks, meanwhile, had big expectations this season after pulling off a huge blockbuster trade for Dejounte Murray over the offseason, but once again struggled to put all the pieces together.

The Heat eliminated the Hawks in five games during their first-round matchup in last season's playoffs, and it looks like Miami will be heavy favorites to advance to the playoffs as the seven seed and embark on a first-round series against the Boston Celtics. So with that being said, let's look at three reasons why the Heat will beat the Hawks in their upcoming Play-In Tournament contest.

3. The Heat have a true playoff closer in Jimmy Butler

Playoff basketball is a completely different game than regular season basketball. Some players thrive in the spotlight, while others crumble. For the Heat, Jimmy Butler has always been a guy that has managed to step up in big situations for them, and against a Hawks team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, Butler is likely going to torch them.

Butler has always been a good player in the postseason, but ever since joining Miami, he's become a different beast. Butler's per game stats throughout his playoff career with the Heat are extremely good (23.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 5.5 APG, 47.9 FG%, 33.3 3P%) and he always seems to take over games for the Heat when they need him the most.

The Hawks finished the season with a defensive rating of 116.3, which was 22nd in the league, and while Miami isn't the strongest offensive team in the league, they should be able to pick Atlanta apart. The Hawks do have a good player to matchup against Butler in Murray, but Butler was made for these moments, and it's safe to expect him to have a big game against Atlanta here.

2. The Heat have familiarity playing in tough situations with each other

Playing in the Play-In Tournament is not an easy situation. The Heat and Hawks are fortunate enough to have two chances to find their way into the playoffs here, but it's a lot easier to be one of the six top seeded teams in the conference and just go from there. That sort of adversity should be something that helps the Heat out here.

Remember, the Heat's recent run of fielding overachieving teams began during the 2020 NBA bubble when they made it all the to the Finals, despite being the fifth seed in the East. Even last season, the Heat weren't really viewed as the top team in the East, despite being the number one seed, and very nearly forced their way to the Finals again.

Of course, it's important to remember the Hawks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021 as the fifth seed, but the fabric of their team isn't as similar as the Heat's is. Not to mention, they have also completely fallen apart over the past two seasons. While the Heat have seen some key players regress, the Hawks have gotten better on paper, but have stayed the same on the court. Will they be able to hold up against a ferocious Heat team here? The signs are pointing towards no right now.

1. The Heat have playoff experience that the Hawks don't have

Piggybacking off that last point, the Heat simply have a wealth of playoff experience that the Hawks don't really have. Miami has made it to the ECF in two of the past three seasons, and while the Hawks made it there the season they didn't, it feels like the gap in experience between these two teams is rather large.

Aside from their one run to the ECF in 2021, which is looking more and more fluky as time passes, the Hawks only other playoff appearance in the Trae Young era came last season, when they managed to sneak out of the Play-In Tournament before losing to Miami. Maybe that Play-In experience helps here, but for the Heat, this feels like a warm up game before advancing to the playoffs. For the Hawks, this feels like a real challenge.

Miami has given it their all with virtually the same core group of players in the past three seasons. They may not make it far in the playoffs should they advance, but when it comes to a single game against the Hawks, it's clear they should have the upper hand. Maybe Young and Murray are able to put up a good fight, but for these three reasons, it would be very surprising to see the Heat come up short against the Hawks in this one.