The New Orleans Pelicans (45-29) cannot clinch a spot in the Western Conference's fourth versus fifth first-round series this week but they can sure lose any hopes of appearing in it. Willie Green's group is just 1-2 amid a six-game homestand and losing ground in the NBA Playoffs race. The first week of April is no cakewalk schedule either as the currently sixth Pelicans will face off against the seventh-place Phoenix Suns (43-31) twice in seven days. Those two matchups hold huge postseason implications.
The Pelicans laid an egg at home against the Boston Celtics on Easter Eve. The Eastern Conference champs left the Crescent City with a 104-92 win, and it left New Orleans in a vulnerable position in the West. Easter Day was no picnic either. The Pelicans got absolutely no help in the standings. The Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers, and Golden State Warriors all won. The Minnesota Timberwolves lost.
That's the recipe for a Pelicans' nightmare, not a setup to a dream scenario for Zion Williamson's first NBA Playoffs experience. The Pelicans woke up two games behind the fourth-place Los Angeles Clippers (47-27) on April Fool's Day. New Orleans is just two games ahead of Phoenix and eighth-place Sacramento. In these pressing times, Brandon Ingram's return cannot come soon enough.
Thankfully for the Pelicans, the Suns have the most difficult remaining schedule including a pair of road games against the Clippers. The Suns also have a home-and-away series with the Timberwolves. Phoenix also plays the Cleveland Cavaliers (home) and Sacramento (road).
Williamson earning a split with Kevin Durant over the next week would be considered a win for New Orleans all things considered. A win on April 1 pushed the standings lead to three games, a nearly insurmountable deficit. A win by the Suns cuts the gap down to a single game.
The difference between fourth and sixth is minuscule compared to the different paths of the sixth and seventh-placed finishers. The Suns need to beat the Pelicans twice just to pull even and face a more difficult path to securing a top-six spot.
Pelicans pressured by Mavericks, Clippers slipping away
Forget the Suns though. New Orleans controls their fate in that head-to-head battle. The Pelicans are under pressure, even on record with the Mavericks (45-29). However, the Luka Doncic-led squad wins on a tiebreak based on divisional records if they win a home game versus the Houston Rockets. New Orleans needs a Dallas loss and a win over the San Antonio Spurs to cancel out that tiebreaker. Doncic and Kyrie Irving have three games remaining against lottery teams; Williamson's Pelicans have only two.
Holding off Dallas might be more important than catching LA for divisional title purposes, but it also may not matter depending on how the top three teams finish. It is a coin flip on whether either scenario is likely. Kawhi Leonard's Clippers have two games against the Utah Jazz, one against the now-crippled Kings, and a regular-season finale against a surging Rockets team that might have already been eliminated from the Play-In Tournament.
The Pelicans would have to go 6-2 at worst to have a chance at catching the Clippers to earn homecourt advantage in the first round. Willie Green has already gone on record saying that an increase in Williamson's minutes down the stretch would be avoided. The team will not take that gamble just to ensure a matchup with Leonard's Clippers.
This leaves fans scoreboard-watching, waiting to see how hard Irving and Doncic push in the seeding wars. Dallas has the eighth easiest remaining schedule, a dour bit of news in New Orleans. The Mavericks will ramp up for the postseason against mostly lottery-bound fodder. The Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets will provide little resistance for Doncic and Irving's offense.
Sacramento (43-31) is stumbling to the finish line having suffered multiple season-altering injuries of late. The Lakers (42-33) could catch the Kings for eighth. There is a very real possibility whichever team finishes seventh will have to go through LeBron James and Stephen Curry before starting a first-round series.
The best-case scenario for the Pelicans was to wind up on the opposite of the bracket as the Thunder and Nuggets. The worst-case scenario is having to suffer through the Play-In Tournament elimination games for the third straight season. New Orleans still has the odds in their favor to finish in the top six, but they cannot fumble away both games against Phoenix.
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