Jannik Sinner takes on Daniil Medvedev. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Sinner Medvedev prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner Medvedev.
What a wild and crazy men's U.S. Open this has turned out to be. Plot twists we simply did not expect have emerged at every turn. Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic failed to reach the fourth round. They were packing their bags and heading on a flight home to Europe before Labor Day and the halfway point of the tournament. An American man will play in the final on Sunday, since Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe have clinched semifinal berths and will face each other in one of Friday's two semifinals. This will mark the first time since 2006 — when Andy Roddick faced Roger Federer in the men's final — that an American will play for the championship in New York. No one saw that coming.
With all of the shocking twists and turns at this event, Wednesday's quarterfinal between top-seeded Jannik Sinner and No. 5 seed Daniil Medvedev sure feels a lot like the final. The winner will be the overwhelming favorite to win the title at the USTA National Tennis Center. The winner will be a massive favorite in the other Friday semifinal, since the opponent will either be Alex de Minaur or Jack Draper, two lower-ranked players. Sinner or Medvedev should not be severely threatened in a potential semifinal against either man. With Tiafoe or Fritz waiting in the final, it is beyond dispute that the winner of Sinner-Medvedev will be a substantial betting favorite to lift the trophy on Sunday afternoon. This is technically a quarterfinal, but plenty of people will arrive at the conclusion that this is essentially the title bout, played a few days before the actual final.
Jannik Sinner lost to Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. He did not feel well for a portion of the match, but Medvedev played a legitimately good match for most of the proceedings. Medvedev took a two-set lead in the 2024 Australian Open final before Sinner rallied to win. This time, it's less likely that Sinner will be able to come back if he falls behind by two sets. Sinner will need to be tied — at worst — after the first two sets. The player who starts quickly is more likely to win here, given how physically taxing the tennis season has been. When we get into September and the U.S. Open, it is harder to fight uphill. This is not to say a comeback is impossible, only that it is less probable later in the tennis year.
Here are the Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Odds
Game spread:
Sinner -4.5: -120
Medvedev: +4.5: -110
Moneyline:
Sinner: -280
Medvedev: +220
To win first set:
Sinner: -186
Medvedev: +152
Total Games In Match
Over 38.5: -118
Under 38.5: -112
Total Games Won:
Sinner over 20.5 games: -120
Sinner under 20.5 games: -110
Medvedev over 18.5 games: -116
Medvedev under 18.5 games: -116
How To Watch U.S. Open
Time: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET/6:15 p.m. PT – could be 30 minutes earlier or later depending on length of previous match
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Jannik Sinner Could Cover The Spread
The fourth-round win over Tommy Paul was a physical match in which Sinner faced a lot of tough situations but worked through them and solved problems. That's a great lead-in to this match. Sinner will be ready in the big moments, and it will be enough to cover the 4.5-game spread.
Why Daniil Medvedev Could Cover The Spread
The spread for this match is 4.5 games. Medvedev should cover as long as he wins at least one set, which we think is highly likely. Sinner winning the match 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 would be a cover for Medvedev. Sinner — if he loses a set — will need to win a set 6-2 or better if he is going to cover the spread. If he wins sets by two games, he won't cover in a four-set match.
Final Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Pick
Medvedev covered the spread when these men met at Wimbledon. We're going to stick with that pick here. Medvedev over 18.5 games is a strong play, too
Final Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Pick: Medvedev +4.5 games, Medvedev over 18.5 games won
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