Jannik Sinner takes on Daniil Medvedev at Wimbledon. Our Wimbledon odds series has our Sinner Medvedev prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner Medvedev.
Jannik Sinner has made his way to the Wimbledon quarterfinals, and his opponent is someone he knows well. Sinner and Daniil Medvedev have met a lot of times over the past year and a half. This will be their eighth meeting since the start of the 2023 tennis season. They met in the 2024 Australian Open final, with Sinner coming from two sets down to win and grab his first major championship. They have met in championship matches of 1,000-point tournaments. They have met entirely on hardcourts, however. This is their 12th all-time meeting, and the first on a non-hardcourt surface. Both men reached the semifinals of Wimbledon last year, with Sinner falling to Novak Djokovic and Medvedev losing to Carlos Alcaraz. They are both accomplished, consistent players — they wouldn't be in the top five of the ATP Tour rankings if they weren't. Now one gets to move on to the semifinals for a possible date with Alcaraz, who faces American Tommy Paul in Tuesday's other quarterfinal.
A key question in this match is whether Medvedev's underdog status will enable him to play freely and cause Sinner to get tight. Sinner has handled pressure well at this tournament, but he has faced pressure in part because he has not been a dominant player. Sinner has usually had at least one wobble, one 10- or 15-minute period in a Wimbledon match this year in which he has struggled. That has sometimes caused him to lose a third set. He almost went five sets with Matteo Berrettini in the second round. Let's see if Sinner can get stronger, and let's see if Medvedev can force Sinner to play his very, very best tennis to win.
Here are the Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Wimbledon Odds: Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Odds
Game spread:
Sinner -5.5: -110
Medvedev: +5.5: -126
Money line
Sinner: -480
Medvedev: +350
To win first set
Sinner: -240
Medvedev: +188
Total Games In Match
Over 38.5: -112
Under 38.5: -118
Sinner over 20.5 games: -124
Sinner under 20.5 games: -108
Medvedev over 17.5 games: -118
Medvedev under 17.5 games: -112
How To Watch Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN Plus
Time: 8:35 a.m. ET / 5:35 a.m. PT
*Watch Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Jannik Sinner Could Cover The Spread
The ability of Jannik Sinner to handle adversity really stands out at this tournament. Medvedev might push him in a set or two, but Sinner has shown he can transcend and rise to a higher level. If Sinner can win the first set, he could gain full control of this match and pull away for a blowout win.
Why Daniil Medvedev Could Cover The Spread
The spread for this match is 5.5 games. Medvedev might not win the match straight up, but he can very realistically cover the spread. If he keeps all three sets close and he loses in straight sets, he'll cover. He could lose 7-6, 6-4, 6-4, and cover the spread. If he forces at least one tiebreaker in the match and loses his other sets by no more than two games, he will cover. If he wins one set in the match, he is very likely to cover. Only if he lost a set 6-1 or 6-2 would he fail to cover the spread in a four-set match. He is likely to give Sinner a battle.
Final Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Pick
Sinner wins, but Medvedev probably covers. We're not extremely confident about that pick, but that's where we lean. Our official recommendation: Pass on this one.
Final Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Pick: Medvedev +5.5 games
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