UFC Fight Night is back in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 95 and we’ve got a host of betting predictions and picks to bring you for all the action. Our next bout is the Featured Prelim of the Night and features a ranked matchup in the Women’s Bantamweight (135) Division. No. 8-ranked Karol Rosa of Brazil will take on Sweden’s No. 11 Pannie Kianzad. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rosa-Kianzad prediction and pick.
Karol Rosa (17-6) has gone 6-3 since joining the UFC in 2019. She opened her UFC stint with four consecutive wins and has since alternated wins and losses over her last five bouts, going 2-3. The competition has only gotten stronger as she lost a close decision to Irene Aldana during her last fight. She looks to rebound here against another worthy competitor. Rosa stands 5’5″ with a 67.5-inch reach.
Pannie Kianzad (16-8) has gone an even 5-5 during her UFC career since 2018. She rode a four-fight winning streak as recently as 2021, but she’s since gone 1-3 in her last four fights leading into this one. Still, her last two losses were against Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson, so she’s looking to continue competition against some of the best in the division. Kianzad stands 5’7″ with a 66-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 95 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 95 Odds: Karol Rosa-Pannie Kianzad Odds
Karol Rosa: -200
Pannie Kianzad: +170
Over 2.5 rounds: -475
Under 2.5 rounds: +375
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Why Karol Rosa Will Win
Karol Rosa has alternated wins and losses over her last six fights and given the current trend she’s on, she’s due for a win in this contest. She comes in as the favorite due to her physicality and strong grappling over opponents. She couples her grappling with wild output on the feet as she averages just about 6.5 significant strikes landed per minute. While she also absorbs her fair share of shots, she’s very good about changing levels and altering the course of the fight. On the ground, she’s extremely solid with her grappling and has no issues keeping her opponents there for all three rounds.
Karol Rosa is a three-round fighter and all eight of her UFC bouts have seen the judges’ scorecards. She’s not typically one to chase the finish, but she fights extremely smart when knowing she’s up on the scorecards. With Kianzad’s proficiency on the ground, it’ll be interesting to see how much time Rosa is willing to spend down there with her. I expect an aggressive approach from Rosa as she looks to land heavy shots early and put Kianzad into desperation mode after the opening round.
Why Pannie Kianzad Will Win
Pannie Kianzad is an extremely balanced fighter with her striking and grappling, often flowing with wherever the fight takes her and displaying solid skills from just about anywhere. Still, she’ll need to have a solid game plan and become the aggressor here as the betting underdog. Her opponent is more aggressive, but Kianzad has the better defensive tactics and will be looking to counter Rosa’s aggressive style. She’s also seen a decision in all of her UFC bouts and it’ll be a stalemate unless Kianzad can reverse things and jump on the offensive here.
Pannie Kianzad will have to be first in the exchanges throughout this fight, otherwise she’ll just be left defending herself as Rosa looks to advance position. Both women throw a high output of strikes, but we’ve seen Kianzad be smarter with her game as she uses head movement and counters at a very high rate. She doesn’t want to find herself on her back at any point and she’ll have to make the most of her takedown defense throughout this one. Look for Kianzad to wait for her counter shots as she waits to explode and turn the tide of this fight.
Final Karol Rosa-Pannie Kianzad Prediction & Pick
This is a high-stakes bout atop the Women’s Bantamweight Division and we’ll see both fighters competing for a possible boost in their standing. Both women are UFC veterans at this point and neither have seen a finish inside of the octagon. Expect this fight to follow the same trend as we see a very close and highly competitive bout through three rounds.
Karol Rosa is the moderate betting favorite here on the back of her dominance in the grappling department. If she can fight ahead in the striking, it’ll open the grappling for her as she works her clear advantage. Still, Pannie Kianzad is very fundamental and we could see her reverse positions and take the lead in this fight.
For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Karol Rosa to get this win in split decision fashion. I expect the bout to be extremely close and with both women being “decision fighters”, expect this fight to last all three rounds. If you’re feeling crazy, this may not be a bad time to bet the DRAW as both women are very equally-matched.
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Final Karol Rosa-Pannie Kianzad Prediction & Pick: Karol Rosa (-200); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-475)
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