UFC Vegas 95: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac kicks off the prelims with a fight in the strawweight division between promotional newcomer Stephanie Luciano and Talita Alencar. Luciano will be making her UFC debut this weekend with wins in two of her last three meanwhile, Alencar had a successful UFC debut where she won a split decision to remain unbeaten. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Luciano-Alencar prediction and pick.
Stephanie Luciano (5-1-1) secured her contract on the Contender Series after a rare draw against her opponent this weekend Talita Alencar. Luciano had a comeback for the ages after she dropped each of the first two rounds to get a 10-8 round three to a unanimous draw. Even though it was a draw both competitors were awarded with a shot in the UFC and now they get to settle the score this weekend at the UFC Apex again.
Talita Alencar (5-0-1) had a successful UFC debut when she won a split decision against fellow Contender Series alumni Rayanne dos Santos. She now will be looking to finish the job this time when she rematches Stephanie Luciano and remain unbeaten when she steps inside the Octagon this weekend.
Here are the UFC Vegas 95 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 95 Odds: Stephanie Luciano-Talita Alencar Odds
Stephanie Luciano: -170
Talita Alencar: +142
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
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Why Stephanie Luciano Will Win
Stephanie Luciano had a good showing in her fight on the Contender Series despite fighting to a unanimous draw. While she did drop each of the first two rounds against Talita Alencar, she showed grit and determination to not give up on herself. In that third and final round Luciano knew she needed a finish and she went after Alencar who was visibly gassed and almost got her out of there but unfortunately, it was too little too late and she had to settle with a draw after a dominant 10-8 round 3. Now, Luciano looks to finish the job this time when she gets a second crack at Alencar this weekend in her UFC debut.
Luciano has a large frame for the strawweight division standing in at 5’6 with a 66.5″ reach which will give her a massive size advantage over the 5’1″ Alencar. She does a great job at using that size to her advantage with her straight punches and her kicks. However, she will need to do a better job at circling away from the cage than she did in her time on the Contender Series, and if she is able to do that it will be a tough time for Alencar to cut off the cage and land the takedowns. This fight for Luciano comes down to keeping it standing and if she’s able to do that it’s her fight to lose as she has shown she is the far superior striker in this matchup.
Why Talita Alencar Will Win
Talita Alencar was able to secure her contract on the Contender Series despite fighting to a unanimous draw. While it wasn’t her best showing, she was able to get her chance to showcase her abilities in the Octagon where she outbattled Rayanne dos Santos to a split decision keeping her unbeaten streak alive. Now, she gets to show the UFC and the fans that she deserves to be in this spot and that she is the better fighter when she gets locked inside the Octagon against Stephanie Luciano yet again this weekend.
Alencar the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion will be looking to force the grappling exchanges early and often in this fight just like she did in their first encounter. While Alencar is still growing fight by fight, she still will be at a disadvantage the longer this fight stays on her feet. Her grappling prowess is what got her out to a 2-0 lead in their first fight and she is going to have to lean on it even more in this one. As long as Alencar can conserve her energy when she lands these takedowns she can control Luciano for a large portion of this fight to get the nod on the judge’s scorecards.
Final Stephanie Luciano-Talita Alencar Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a very interesting fight to kick off this fight night event. It’s hard to expect a different fight between these two as Luciano will be the far superior striker while Alencar will be the far superior grappler. It’s going to come down to the get-up game for Luciano and the gas tank of Alencar which makes this fight a very close one to call. Seeing as how Luciano did a good job at staying safe on the mat and how she worked her way back to her feet she should be able to do more of the same but put an emphasis this time on the feet as Alencar gasses and she comes away with her first UFC victory.
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Final Stephanie Luciano-Talita Alencar Prediction & Pick: Stephanie Luciano (-170), Over 2.5 Rounds (-260)
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