Barbora Krejcikova takes on Jasmine Paolini in the Wimbledon ladies' singles final. Our Wimbledon final odds series has our Krejcikova Paolini prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Krejcikova Paolini.
The 2024 Wimbledon Championships are done with the preliminaries. It's now championship weekend and time to crown the winners of this tournament. Saturday's showcase, just after 2 p.m. London time — the traditional start at the All-England Club — features yet another women's final few people predicted before the tournament began. A little perspective is warranted here: After the 2020 Wimbledon tournament was cancelled due to the pandemic, the four women's finals in the 2020s have featured at least one out-of-nowhere player, someone who was completely off the radar before the tournament in terms of being widely viewed as a serious contender for the title. In 2021, it was Karolina Pliskova who surprised everyone with her run to the final. In 2022, Elena Rybakina soared to the final as the No. 17 seed, capitalizing in part on the absence of Russian and Belarusian players who were banned from the tournament due to the war in Ukraine. In 2023, Marketa Vondrousova shocked everyone by winning the title. Now, in 2024, we have two players who were not seen as top-tier title threats contending for the championship.
It's not that these players aren't good. They are. It's not that they haven't done anything in tennis before; they have. It's more a matter of both players appearing to be in a less-than-great position to make a run this year at SW19.
Krejcikova was an off-the-radar player. Seeded No. 31 (the next-to-last of the 32 seeded players at the women's tournament), she hadn't reached a major semifinal, let alone a final, since her 2021 French Open championship run. Unlike players such as Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Ons Jabeur, and Coco Gauff, Krejcikova had not made herself a consistent presence in the latter stages of majors. She has a lot of talent and a lot of tools to be great, but we hadn't seen her play at an elite level at a major tournament in quite some time. She has found a way to put the pieces together during this fortnight.
Paolini had just reached the French Open final in early June, so she was not off the radar the way Krejcikova was. However, Paolini — who is at home on red clay, like most Italian players — didn't figure to be able to make a smooth transition to grass. Moreover, the heavy lifting done at the French Open might have put her in a spot where she would be mentally drained at Wimbledon. The veteran has wiped away those concerns and silenced her doubters with a stirring run which reached its crescendo with a heartstopping win over Donna Vekic in a semifinal thriller. Both players were two points from victory at 8-8 in the final-set super tiebreaker. Paolini won those two points to claim the breaker, 10-8, and reach a second major final in the span of five weeks.
Two worthy finalists, two very unexpected stories. All that's left is to see which one will win a match which is priced close to a toss-up.
Here are the Barbora Krejcikova-Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon final odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Wimbledon Final Odds: Barbora Krejcikova-Jasmine Paolini Odds
Game spread
Krejcikova -1.5: -116
Paolini +1.5: -116
Money line
Krejcikova: -137
Paolini: +114
To win first set
Krejcikova: -132
Paolini: +108
Total Games In Match
Over 22.5: -112
Under 22.5: -118
Krejcikova over 12.5 games: -108
Krejcikova under 12.5 games: -124
Paolini over 12.5 games: +114
Paolini under 12.5 games: -148
How To Watch Barbora Krejcikova vs Jasmine Paolini
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN Plus
Time: 9:10 a.m. ET / 6:10 a.m. PT
*Watch Barbora Krejcikova vs Jasmine Paolini LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Barbora Krejcikova Could Cover The Spread
Krejcikova is beating players who hit a very big, hard type of shot. After solving a bunch of power players, Krejcikova should find Paolini's reduced level of power quite manageable.
Why Jasmine Paolini Could Cover The Spread
Krejcikova is playing well, but Paolini is winning really close matches. She was down 5-2 to Madison Keys in the third set of a fourth-round match. She won the next three games before Keys had to retire with an injury. She won the super-close match against Vekic. Don't doubt her.
Final Barbora Krejcikova-Jasmine Paolini Prediction & Pick
Picking a winner is a coin flip. The best plays are over total games for the match and both players, since this match has a great chance of going three sets. Paolini has the best price of those props.
Final Barbora Krejcikova-Jasmine Paolini Prediction & Pick: Paolini over 12.5 games
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