After earning First Team All-Pro honors and finishing second in AP Offensive Player of the Year voting in 2021, Jonathan Taylor had a down year in 2022. Injuries limited the young running back to just 11 games, as he rushed for 861 yards and four touchdowns.

Then in a tumultuous off-season, Taylor requested a trade from the Colts, which owner Jim Irsay denied. With so much uncertainty entering the season, here's what fantasy football owners can expect from Jonathan Taylor in 2023.

Jonathan Taylor 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

All eyes on the o-line

No unit on the Indianapolis Colts was more disappointing in 2022 than the offensive line. With the immobile Matt Ryan at the helm, Indy gave up the second-most sacks in the NFL. Plus, Colts running backs picked up just 4.2 yards per carry — down from 5.1 yards/attempt the previous season. The right guard position is the biggest area of concern, as 2021 seventh-round pick Will Fries looked overwhelmed and 2020 fifth-rounder Danny Pinter was even worse.

This is not a rag-tag group either. Braden Smith is a five-year starter at tackle as is five-time Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson, while center Ryan Kelly has made the Pro Bowl three times. If this group can bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor year, then Jonathan Taylor will be able to return to form as well.

Quarterback questions

Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, is the quarterback of the future, but veteran signal-caller Gardner Minshew is the Colts' QB for the present. While the 27-year-old is 8-16 in 24 career starts, he boasts a strong quarterback rating of 93.1 to go with 44 touchdowns and just 15 interceptions.

Adding a new quarterback to an offense can drastically change the situation for the incumbent running. It can mean an uptick in carries for the running back, as he becomes the focal point in the offense. This change can also make things more difficult for the primary backfield man, as teams play the run and dare the quarterback to beat them with his arm.

Gardner Minshew should open up the field enough for Taylor to succeed, but if the Colts decide to give Anthony Richardson some time under center, then expectations for Taylor should be tempered.

Are the health concerns legit?

Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in just about every rushing category in 2021, racking up 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 5.5 yards per carry. Last season, he was not quite so prolific. The Wisconsin running back averaged 4.5 yards/carry and averaged almost 30 fewer yards per game on the ground. Some of this dip in production was due to a nagging ankle injury that kept him out for six games, while a struggling offensive line and mediocre offense overall did not help either.

With concerns about his ankle in 2023 still high, Taylor entered training camp with back pain that the franchise deemed to be suffered in a non-football setting. He failed that physical due to the back pain but team doctors also deemed that his surgically repaired ankle was not fully healed yet. Taylor replied on Twitter, stating, “Never had back pain.” With no end in sight, this complicated situation might be one to avoid.

Overall outlook

Despite coming off a down year, Jonathan Taylor would have entered 2023 as one of the best running backs in the game and an elite fantasy asset. ESPN ranks Taylor sixth overall in PPR leagues and fourth among running backs while coming in at third amongst RBs in non-PPR leagues. Yet the new injury news deeply complicates things. Taylor was slotted as a low-risk, high-end fantasy ball carrier. But with his trade request denied, this situation becomes a major fantasy football headache

If Taylor and the Colts figure things out, the Indy RB is a first-round lock for fantasy football owners and a possible top-five pick. If not, steer clear of this entire mess.