Given the imperfect structure for determining the best teams in college football, it's often questioned by fans and pundits throughout the season as to who the best teams in the country are. Now, with four teams (at least for this year until it moves to the 12-team format next season), it's a little less questioned, although still not perfect. Somehow, for the most part, the College Football Playoff works itself out by good old-fashioned attrition. Florida State football is the latest victim of attrition, although not by losing a game but so much more.
Through 11 games of the regular season, the Seminoles remain perfect, with only one non-conference game left against their rivals, the Florida Gators, followed by a guaranteed spot in the ACC Championship game versus Louisville. But what seemed like the easiest path of the four current teams in the top-4 of the CFP, the No. 4 Seminoles now may have the most difficult one after quarterback Jordan Travis suffered what looks to be a season-ending leg injury against North Alabama on Saturday.
Jordan Travis' injury causes a year of missed opportunity for Florida State football
In a year that seemed like it was all finally coming together for fourth-year head coach Mike Norvell and Florida State football, now seems like it could be a year of missed opportunity. That's all thanks to the gruesome leg injury suffered by the sixth-year senior against a less than formidable FCS team, no less.
Florida State, after finishing with 10 wins last season, came in as a preseason favorite to make the CFP, with Travis a potential Heisman Trophy candidate. With the heavy competition in the Heisman race, it seemed unlikely that Travis would have won the coveted trophy, and now it seems like the Seminoles could be without their collective trophy, as they should be out of the top-4 in the CFP.
But wait,” you ask. Didn't you say that Florida State is undefeated and will still be facing a 5-6 Florida team this weekend? Why would they be knocked out of the top-4? Well, that's all true, and they still could very well be in the top-4 in Tuesday's CFP rankings. But what about after that?
Tate Rodemaker replaces Jordan Travis as Florida State QB
Florida State now has to rely on Tate Rodemaker, a redshirt junior who followed Norvell from Memphis. He's been Travis' backup for the last four seasons, with playing time in 22 games, holding a 60.2 completion percentage, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions. His best game was when he went 6-for-10, throwing for 109 yards and two touchdowns in a come-from-behind win against Louisville last year.
This is now a major uphill battle for Norvell's Florida State football team. Travis' experience and skill will undoubtedly be missed, along with his leadership. Still, it should also be accounted for what kind of mental toll his team took after his injury. Losing a starting quarterback the caliber of Travis is not easy to replace, especially at this time of the year, with games against one of your biggest rivals and the other for the conference championship.
So, the question is how much value the CFP voters will take into account Travis' injury in Florida State's ranking this Tuesday? We know that in years past, the CFP committee has considered injuries in regards to team losses, according to Stewart Mandel of The Athletic. But when players injuries were taken into account against teams in the past, they were 1) earlier in the season and 2) were not season-ending injuries. So how does the committee play this one?
Florida State football should drop in new College Football Playoff rankings
A couple of things help the committee's decision here, either this week or after the ACC Championship potentially. If Travis' injury is taken into account, as it should be, then that would drop Florida State out of the top-4. The question, however, becomes how low do you drop a team that hasn't lost a game? I would say no lower than No. 5 — which is what they are ranked in the AP poll — with the argument being that current No. 5 Washington's win over No. 11 Oregon State on Saturday night moves the Huskies into the No. 4 spot now. That then leaves everything up to a pivotal last week of the regular season ahead of conference championship weekend for both Washington and Florida State.
This leaves Washington with one more regular-season game against Washington State, who demolished Colorado last Friday, as well as Florida State, who will have a chance to prove that they are still capable of winning convincingly with Rodemaker at quarterback. But then you have to consider how much stock the committee would put into a Florida State win over a five-win Gators team.
Again, the safe bet here is that Florida State football will likely move to at least the No. 5 spot either by this week or the next, or potentially even further down with losses against either Florida or No. 10 Louisville in the ACC Championship. This week's CFP rankings will certainly be something to watch even more now. Simply because Jordan Travis' injury, and the timing of it, as to how it is judged and accounted for could be unprecedented.
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