We're back to continue the UFC 311 Prelims with a betting prediction and pick, heading to the Women's Bantamweight (135) Division for this next meeting between ranked contenders. Brazil's No.9 Karol Rosa will square-off against No. 13 Ailin Perez of Argentina. Check our UFC odds series for our Rosa-Perez prediction and pick.
Karol Rosa (18-6) has gone an impressive 7-3 inside the UFC since 2019. She most recently took down Pannie Kianzad via unanimous decision and will be faced with another young rising opponent in this one. With a win, Rosa could make a run at a top-5 opponent with some leverage for her next matchup. She stands 5-foot-5 with a 67.5-inch reach.
Ailin Perez (11-2) has gone 4-1 in the UFC since debuting in 2022. Most recently, Perez beat Darya Zheleznyakova via arm triangle, but she came into the bout after missing weight badly on the scales. She'll look to put those troubles behind her as she'll need to lock in here with rankings on the line. Perez stands 5-foot-5 with a 66-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 311 Odds: Karol Rosa-Ailin Perez Odds
Karol Rosa: -258
Ailin Perez: +210
Over 2.5 rounds: -540
Under 2.5 rounds: +360
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Why Karol Rosa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Pannie Kianzad – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Karol Rosa will be in a peculiar spot during this fight as she defends her ranking against a much younger opponent ranked below her. While this may seem as a slight risk to her position, Karol Rosa is fully confident in her abilities and advantages in each area of the fight. She lands 6.5 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy, one of the best clips in all of the division. Her boxing is on another level and it'll be her most utilized weapon in gaining another decision win.
Karol Rosa's last 10 fights have gone towards a decision and while she's on the right end of most, she's certainly had her fair share of back-and-forth scraps. She won't be able to ignore the will and determination of her opponent in this one, so it'll take an active and accurate effort from Rosa to gain a convincing decision. She's also been working on her grappling in recent competitions, so don't be surprised if she shows some new wrinkles to her submission game.
Why Ailin Perez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Darya Zheleznyakova – SUB (Arm Triangle Choke)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Ailin Perez has now won four consecutive fights after making her most recent win look easy with a submission finish. While her competition up to this point hasn't been the best, Perez has managed three unanimous decisions during this stretch and she's been dominant in doing so. She mixes up her game with over five takedown attempts per contest and is a constant threat with her jiu jitsu. Better yet, she does a great job of keeping opponents on the ground and landing tiresome ground-and-pound.
Ailin Perez will keep coming forward despite any adversity and while she may be outmatched in the striking department, her energy and willingness to march forward will keep her dangerous in this fight. Expect her to base much of her game along the fence as she tries to keep Rosa out of boxing range. The more Perez can make this a sloppy fight, the more it will benefit her in finding opportunistic takedowns and controlling the pace of this fight.
Final Karol Rosa-Ailin Perez Prediction & Pick
This is another solid matchup between veteran and up-and-comer as we'll see a clash of styles in this one. Karol Rosa will be looking to stay within boxing range and win this fight with her output. Ailin Perez is the much more active grappler and will be looking to control this fight from top position. Karol Rosa owns a strong 68% takedown defense, but will it be enough to keep Perez out of range?
Ultimately, Karol Rosa has a big advantage in this fight if she's able to find a consistent jab. She's great at keeping opponents at range with consistent punching down the middle, so she'll certainly need to win by volume and keep Perez out of her face and chasing takedowns.
The betting odds should certainly be closer and while I expect Karol Rosa to get the win here, we're simply getting too much value in a dangerous young prospect who's won her last four fights. This fight is likely to hit a decision and Ailin Perez has shown an ability to control a fight and set the pace to where she's her best. We'll take a small chance on the underdog as her betting line should be shorter.
Final Karol Rosa-Ailin Perez Prediction & Pick: Ailin Perez (+210)