Subscribe
Follow Us
UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns versus Michael Morales continues the main card with a fight between Rodolfo Bellato and Carlos Hernandez in the light heavyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Bellato-Craig prediction and pick.
Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) remains unbeaten in the UFC after a majority draw with Jimmy Crute at UFC 312, where he showcased sharp striking and durability. Prior to that, Bellato impressed in his debut by stopping Ihor Potieria via second-round TKO. Now, he faces Paul Craig at UFC Vegas 106.
Paul Craig (17-9-1) returns to light heavyweight at UFC Vegas 106 after a tough middleweight run, where he dropped three straight to Brendan Allen, Caio Borralho, and Bo Nickal. Previously, Craig submitted Andre Muniz in his 185-pound debut. Now, he looks to snap his skid against Rodolfo Bellato this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Rodolfo Bellato-Paul Craig Odds
Rodolfo Bellato: -535
Paul Craig: +400
Over 1.5 rounds: +100
Under 1.5 rounds: -130
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Rodolfo Bellato Will Win
- Last Fight: (D) Jimmy Crute
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 11 (7 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Rodolfo Bellato is favored to defeat Paul Craig at UFC Vegas 106, and the stylistic matchup heavily favors the Brazilian prospect. Bellato’s offensive output stands out: he lands 6.28 significant strikes per minute at a sharp 62% accuracy, more than doubling Craig’s 2.52 landed per minute at 44% accuracy. This striking advantage is significant, especially given Craig’s recent struggles on the feet and his tendency to absorb damage. Bellato’s physicality and power have been evident in his recent UFC performances, including a gritty draw against Jimmy Crute and a TKO win over Ihor Potieria.
While Craig’s path to victory is through his elite grappling and submissions, Bellato’s 85% takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing limit those opportunities. Craig has lost three straight and five of his last six, showing vulnerability when he cannot secure the ground game. Bellato’s youth, athleticism, and finishing instincts give him the edge in exchanges and the cardio to maintain pressure over three rounds. If Bellato avoids Craig’s submission traps, he should be able to dictate the fight’s tempo, land the cleaner shots, and either secure a late stoppage or earn a clear decision win this weekend.
Why Paul Craig Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Bo Nickal – DEC
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 17 (4 KO/TKO/13 SUB)
Paul Craig’s path to victory over Rodolfo Bellato at UFC Vegas 106 relies on his world-class submission skills and veteran savvy. Despite a recent skid, Craig remains one of the most dangerous grapplers in the light heavyweight division, boasting 13 submission wins and a 76% submission rate-far higher than Bellato’s 33%. Craig has proven his ability to submit elite competition, including a win over current champion Magomed Ankalaev, and his guard game is lethal even when fighting off his back. Bellato, while powerful and offensively aggressive, absorbs 6.31 significant strikes per minute and has shown cardio issues after the opening rounds, as seen in his majority draw with Jimmy Crute. If Bellato’s early output fades, Craig’s durability and opportunistic grappling become increasingly dangerous.
Craig’s experience advantage, this will be his 19th UFC fight compared to Bellato’s third, means he’s faced and beaten higher-caliber opponents. While Bellato’s striking is a threat, his defensive lapses and tendency to leave openings on the ground play into Craig’s strengths. If Craig can weather the early storm and bring the fight to the mat, especially as Bellato tires, he’s well-positioned to secure a trademark submission and pull off the upset in Las Vegas.
Final Rodolfo Bellato-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick
Paul Craig enters UFC Vegas 106 as a significant underdog against Rodolfo Bellato, but his path to victory is clear and achievable. While Bellato boasts superior striking volume (6.28 significant strikes landed per minute to Craig’s 2.52) and accuracy (62% to 44%), he also absorbs a concerning 6.31 significant strikes per minute, leaving defensive gaps that a crafty veteran like Craig can exploit. Craig’s striking is limited, but his world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and proven submission ability-highlighted by a win over current champion Magomed Ankalaev-make him a constant threat on the mat. If Bellato’s early aggression leads to overcommitment or fatigue, Craig has the experience and opportunism to capitalize, especially if the fight goes beyond the first round.
Expect Bellato to start strong, pressing the action with power and volume, but as the fight progresses, his cardio and defensive liabilities could become exposed, particularly if Craig survives the initial onslaught. Craig’s best route is to weather the early storm, pull Bellato into grappling exchanges, and use his 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes to hunt for a finish. If he can drag Bellato into deeper waters, Craig’s submission game and veteran savvy give him a real shot at pulling off the upset with a trademark tap-out in the later rounds.
Final Rodolfo Bellato-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick: Paul Craig (+400), Over 1.5 Rounds (+100)
