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UFC Vegas 107: Erin Blanchfield versus Maycee Barber continues on the prelims with a fight between Jafel Filho and Allan Nascimento in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Filho-Nascimento prediction and pick.
Jafel Filho (16-3) comes into UFC Vegas 107 riding solid momentum with back-to-back first-round submission wins over Ode Osbourne and Daniel Barez. Known for his slick grappling and high-level jiu-jitsu, Filho has shown the ability to control and finish fights quickly, earning a Performance of the Night bonus recently. After a submission loss to Muhammad Mokaev in his UFC debut, Filho has rebounded impressively and looks to continue his rise in the flyweight division.
Allan Nascimento (20-6) returns to action at UFC Vegas 107 after a lengthy layoff, having last fought in January 2023 when he submitted Carlos Hernandez in the first round. Prior to that, Nascimento earned a unanimous decision over Jake Hadley, making it two straight wins as he looks to continue his resurgence against Jafel Filho.
Here are the UFC Vegas 107 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 107 Odds: Jafel Filho-Allan Nascimento Odds
Jafel Filho: +130
Allan Nascimento: -155
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
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Why Jafel Filho Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Ode Osbourne – SUB R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 15 (5 KO/TKO/10 SUB)
Jafel Filho is well-positioned to defeat Allan Nascimento at UFC Vegas 107, thanks to his finishing instincts and recent momentum. Filho enters the bout on a two-fight UFC win streak, both by first-round submission, showcasing his ability to capitalize on openings quickly and decisively.
His grappling credentials are further bolstered by a recent win over top flyweight Amir Albazi in a grappling match, and his only UFC loss came in a short-notice debut against Muhammad Mokaev, a fight in which Filho nearly finished Mokaev with a kneebar before succumbing late.
Nascimento, while a skilled grappler in his own right, has been less active, with just three fights in the last three-and-a-half years due to injuries and illness. Filho’s methodical top game and patience in securing dominant positions could neutralize Nascimento’s active guard and sweeps, especially if Filho can maintain control and avoid extended exchanges from the bottom.
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With a 94% finish rate and a knack for landing powerful left hooks, Filho’s aggression and ability to dictate the pace early give him a clear path to victory. If he continues his recent form, expect Filho to overwhelm Nascimento and secure another impressive finish, solidifying his status as a rising threat in the flyweight division.
Why Allan Nascimento Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Carlos Hernandez – SUB R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 16 (1 KO/TKO/15 SUB)
Allan Nascimento has a strong chance to defeat Jafel Filho at UFC Vegas 107, thanks to his elite grappling pedigree and high fight IQ. A veteran of the renowned Chute Boxe Diego Lima camp, Nascimento has won two straight in the UFC, including a slick first-round submission over Carlos Hernandez and a dominant decision over Jake Hadley.
With 14 career submission wins and 12 first-round finishes, he’s proven to be a dangerous threat on the mat, utilizing a dynamic guard and relentless scrambles to create openings.
Nascimento’s ability to maintain a high pace and adapt his grappling to each opponent could be the key against the aggressive, finish-oriented Filho. While Filho excels at securing dominant positions and quick submissions, Nascimento’s movement and creativity on the ground often disrupt methodical grapplers, forcing them into unpredictable exchanges.
If Nascimento can avoid giving up his back against the cage and keep the fight in open space, his transitions and submission arsenal may overwhelm Filho, especially as the fight progresses. Despite a recent layoff, Nascimento’s experience, cardio, and versatility make him a formidable test for Filho. Expect Nascimento to capitalize on scrambles and potentially secure a late submission or decision victory, reaffirming his place as a rising flyweight contender.
Final Jafel Filho-Allan Nascimento Prediction & Pick
Jafel Filho is favored to get his hand raised against Allan Nascimento at UFC Vegas 107, largely due to his recent momentum and potent submission game. Filho has rebounded from a tough debut loss to Muhammad Mokaev with two consecutive first-round submission victories over Daniel Barez and Ode Osbourne, both showcasing his ability to quickly capitalize on grappling opportunities. His average fight time is notably short, just 8:29, demonstrating his knack for early finishes and aggressive starts.
Statistically, Filho attempts more submissions per 15 minutes (2.6) than Nascimento (0.9), and his takedown defense (55%) is superior to Nascimento’s (16%), making him less likely to be controlled on the mat. While Nascimento is a dangerous submission artist himself, his lack of recent activity and tendency to fight off his back could play into Filho’s strengths. Expect Filho to push the pace early, look for takedowns, and hunt for submissions, likely to control the fight and get the nod on the scorecards, and continue his rise in the UFC flyweight division.
Final Jafel Filho-Allan Nascimento Prediction & Pick: Jafel Filho (+130), Over 2.5 Rounds (-154)
