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UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns versus Michael Morales continues the prelims with a fight between Gabe Green and Matheus Camilo in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Green-Camilo prediction and pick.
Gabe Green (11-5) returns after a two-year layoff, looking to bounce back from a 14-second knockout loss to Bryan Battle at UFC on ABC 4. Previously, Green dropped a unanimous decision to Ian Machado Garry. Now, he makes his lightweight debut, aiming to reignite his UFC career against Matheus Camilo at UFC Vegas 106.
Matheus Camilo (9-2) rides a six-fight winning streak into his UFC debut, most recently outpointing Dorobshokh Nabotov by unanimous decision last December. Prior to that, Camilo earned another decision win over Jhonasky Sojo. Now, the Brazilian prospect looks to make a statement against Gabe Green at UFC Vegas 106.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Gabe Green-Matheus Camilo Odds
Gabe Green: +190
Matheus Camilo: -230
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -154
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Why Gabe Green Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Bryan Battle – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 (4 KO/TKO/6 SUB)
Gabe Green is primed to make a statement against Matheus Camilo at UFC Vegas 106, bringing a wealth of UFC experience and a versatile finishing arsenal to his lightweight debut. Despite a two-year layoff, Green’s resume includes gritty performances against high-level opponents and finishes in 10 of his 11 career wins, split evenly between knockouts and submissions. His aggressive style and proven durability make him a tough test for any newcomer.
Camilo enters on a six-fight win streak but has yet to face UFC-caliber competition. While he’s well-rounded, both of his career losses have come by submission, which plays into Green’s strengths as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt with six submission victories. Green’s move down to lightweight should also give him a size and strength advantage, potentially amplifying his pressure and power. If Green can weather Camilo’s early offense and push the pace, his experience, finishing instincts, and ability to capitalize on grappling exchanges give him the edge. Expect Green to use his Octagon savvy to drag Camilo into deep waters and secure a late finish or clear decision, reigniting his UFC career in his new division.
Why Matheus Camilo Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Dorobshokh Nabotov – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Matheus Camilo enters UFC Vegas 106 with momentum and a well-rounded skill set that gives him the edge over Gabe Green. Riding a six-fight winning streak, Camilo has shown consistency and composure, demonstrated by his unanimous decision win over Dorobshokh Nabotov. His ability to mix striking with persistent grappling makes him a versatile threat. Camilo’s takedown success and top control could neutralize Green’s offense, especially given Green’s struggles with takedown defense. Camilo’s experience training alongside UFC talent and his efficient striking volume position him well to control the pace and dictate where the fight takes place.
Green, coming off a two-year layoff and moving down to lightweight, faces challenges adapting to a new division and regaining his form. While Green has finishing ability, his recent performances have been inconsistent, and his durability has been tested. Camilo’s strong wrestling base and ability to maintain pressure should allow him to impose his game plan, frustrate Green, and capitalize on openings. Expect Camilo to control the grappling exchanges, wear down Green, and earn a decision victory, continuing his rise in the UFC’s lightweight ranks this weekend.
Final Gabe Green-Matheus Camilo Prediction & Pick
Matheus Camilo enters UFC Vegas 106 as the betting favorite and a surging prospect riding a six-fight win streak, and the matchup against Gabe Green looks primed for him to make a successful UFC debut. Camilo’s recent form is impressive, with four finishes in his last six outings, and he’s shown steady improvement against increasingly tough competition. While Green brings more UFC experience, he returns after a two-year layoff and is coming off consecutive losses, including a quick knockout defeat. Camilo’s youth, momentum, and ability to mix up his striking and grappling should allow him to dictate the pace, especially as Green adjusts to a new weight class and shakes off cage rust.
Expect the first round to be competitive, with Green’s aggression and experience posing early challenges. However, as the fight progresses, Camilo’s fresher legs, sharper timing, and finishing instincts should allow him to pull away on the scorecards. Green’s durability and heart may keep him in the fight, but Camilo’s consistency and ability to capitalize on openings give him the edge. Look for Camilo to control the action in the later rounds, outlanding Green and potentially threatening with submissions or ground control, ultimately earning a decision victory and announcing himself as a new threat in the lightweight division.
Final Gabe Green-Matheus Camilo Prediction & Pick: Matheus Camilo (-230), Over 2.5 Rounds (+120)
