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The UFC Vegas 106 Main Card is heating up and we're set for another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. Nigeria's Sodiq Yusuff will face Brazil's new talent Mairon Santos as both fighters seek a potential top-15 ranking. Check the UFC odds series for our Yusuff-Santos prediction and pick.
Sodiq Yusuff (13-4) has gone 6-3 since joining the UFC in 2018. After starting his UFC run with a 4-0 streak, he's gone 2-2 over his last four fights with back-t0-back losses against Edson Barboza and Diego Lopes coming into this one. He'll face a much younger and inexperienced UFC talent ahead of this one. Yusuff stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Mairon Santos (15-1) has gone 2-0 through his first UFC appearances since 2024. A former LFA prospect who got his shot by winning The Ultimate Fighter, he's beaten Kaan Ofli and Francis Marshall most recently with the toughest test of his UFC career ahead of him. Santos stands 5-foot-7 with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Sodiq Yusuff-Mairon Santos Odds
Sodiq Yusuff: +105
Mairon Santos: -125
Over 2.5 rounds: -220
Under 2.5 rounds: +170
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Why Sodiq Yusuff Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Diego Lopes – TKO (uppercut, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Sodiq Yusuff is coming in following a quick loss to Diego Lopes over a year ago, but the loss hasn't aged terribly given Lopes' eventual rise through the rankings. It's been a long road for Yusuff to get back to action and he'll be needing to take care of a much younger and fresher opponent. Still, his experience against some of the best lightweights will do him a great service as he should be confident in this matchup.
It's surprising to see an established fighter like Sodiq Yusuff as the betting underdog in this fight considering his wins over guys like Alex Caceres and Andre Fili. Yusuff is solid from just about everywhere, but he shines most when he's able to rifle his blistering kickboxing at opponents. If he finds a rhythm and starts opening up his combinations, he'll be a tough man to stop for the UFC newcomer in Santos.
Why Mairon Santos Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Francis Marshall – S DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO
Mairon Santos has looked very solid through his first two UFC appearances, but there's no denying that his last split decision win over Francis Marshall was indeed a close one. While Santos just barely edged his opponent in total strikes, he allowed three of five takedown attempts and showed a clear hole in the grappling side of his game. To be successful here, he'll have to show significant improvements against a craft fighter like Yusuff.
Still, Santos can expect the majority of this fight to take place on the feet given the nature of his opponent. Santos is extremely fast and does a great job of dodging punches. He's even more dangerous when slipping and countering, so expect him to be waiting for Yusuff to whiff on some of his shots. Santos is also very dangerous in the clinch with knees and elbows, so don't be surprised if he tries to tie Yusuff up from there as well.
Santos' biggest advantage during this fight will be his use of his range and long limbs to create distance between his opponent. While he doesn't necessarily have a reach advantage, he does a great job of keeping strikes and kicks out in front of him while frustrating his opponent. His front kicks up the middle along with his straight jab will be the biggest weapons during this fight.
Final Sodiq Yusuff-Mairon Santos Prediction & Pick
This will be another exciting striking matchup on this card as a UFC vet welcomes a fresh face to the division. Sodiq Yusuff is returning to action after a year away and looking to get back on the winning track. His experience against some of the best in the division will serve him well during this matchup.
Mairon Santos has shown every glimpse of a growing talent in this sport, but his left split decision against Francis Marshall left a lot to be desired. His game will need to become much more well-rounded if he wants to stand a chance against strong competitors like Yusuff.
Despite Santos' raw talent at an early age, we have to side with the more experienced fighter in Sodiq Yusuff to get this win. He'll be sticking to a strict game plan following a pause from action, so I expect him to be fully determined in coming back with a win.
Final Sodiq Yusuff-Mairon Santos Prediction & Pick: Sodiq Yusuff (+105)
