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Two light heavyweights looking to put together a win streak in the Octagon match up with Dustin Jacoby (20-9-1) taking on Bruno Lopes (14-1). It is time to continue our UFC Vegas 107 odds series with a Dustin Jacoby-Bruno Lopes prediction and pick.
Jacoby, 37, prepares to make the walk for his 17th UFC appearance. The former GLORY kickboxer is coming off arguably the best win of his career, knocking Vitor Petrino out cold at UFC Tampa in December 2024. The loss ended a two-fight losing streak and a brutal 1-4 stretch dating back to 2022.
Lopes, 32, is a veteran of the sport but still relatively new to the UFC. After failing in his initial attempt to earn a contract on Dana White's Contender Series, Lopes knocked out Mikheil Sazhiniani on the show a year later. He followed up his redemption performance with an upset win over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in his debut at UFC Vegas 101.
Here are the UFC Vegas 107 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 107 Odds: Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes Odds
Dustin Jacoby: -198
Bruno Lopes: +164
Over 2.5 rounds: -115
Under 2.5 rounds: -115
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Why Dustin Jacoby Will Win
Lopes entered the cage on DWCS 2023 as one of the most-hyped prospects of the season. He was given a matchup with Brendson Ribeiro that he was expected to shine in, but ended up getting flattened in the first round. Since then, his confidence has never recovered. The aggressiveness that got him to the big stage completely vanished, and he has the look of a fighter who is scared to get hit. Those are never good traits to have in the UFC, much less against a former kickboxer like Jacoby.
Lopes has the grappling advantage in this fight, but he built his name on the regional scene as a striker. However, his striking has been putrid in the Octagon, landing just 43 percent of his punches and 2.89 significant strikes per minute. Few light heavyweights are as technical on the feet as Jacoby is. After a decade of competing at the highest level of kickboxing, Jacoby's striking is substantially higher than the divisional average.
While his inactivity on the feet is painful to watch, Lopes' biggest weakness is his chin. Every time he is hit cleanly, his reactions are never good. Lopes has already been knocked down twice in the Octagon, once in each of his DWCS fights. Coming off the knockout of Petrino, Jacoby's confidence has never been higher, and he certainly has the power to shut Lopes' lights out in a similar fashion.
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Why Bruno Lopes Will Win
Jacoby might have the more decorated striking background, but on paper, Lopes' skills are on par with his. The Brazilian owns a black belt in Muay Thai and owns a highlight reel of knockouts that rivals Jacoby's. However, Lopes' biggest advantage will come on the ground, where he should be the better grappler.
While Jacoby's wrestling has come a long way, his jiu-jitsu is still far behind. Historically, Jacoby has defended takedowns well, owning a 62 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but he has previously struggled against aggressive grapplers. The last time he faced a similar opponent, Ion Cutelaba took him down nine times and earned a 10-8 score in the first round.
Most importantly, Jacoby's age is beginning to rear its ugly head. He was once able to pick opponents apart at range with his speed and timing, but his activity and movement looked significantly slower against Petrino. His highlight-reel knockout masked it, but Jacoby looked every bit of 37 in that fight. Conversely, Lopes is still in his athletic prime and should have the speed and strength advantages over an aging veteran.
Final Dustin Jacoby-Bruno Lopes Prediction & Pick
Coming off a big knockout win, the market might be a tad too high on Jacoby. While he has made a career out of his precise kickboxing, Jacoby's activity, speed, and footwork have noticeably declined in his recent performances. Jacoby is not only 37, but he has decades of fight mileage on his body after transitioning to MMA from a kickboxing career.
While Jacoby enters the matchup in a prime sell-high spot, Lopes is also in a potential buy-low position. His underwhelming performances on Dana White's Contender Series caused everyone to forget how high his hype was just a couple of years ago. Lopes might not be the championship-level prospect he appeared to be at first, but he still has the potential to break into the rankings with a couple of solid performances. This division is not deep, and MMA is notoriously recency-biased.
Lopes' chin is a major concern after being knocked down twice in as many DWCS fights. That is certainly not a problem to look past at light heavyweight, but Jacoby has not typically been known as a one-punch knockout artist. Before his win over Petrino, Jacoby had just two knockdowns in his previous 10 fights. Jacoby is not without his own chin concerns either, suffering four knockdowns in his last five outings.
Knowing he has the grappling advantage, look for Lopes to smother Jacoby early and execute a similar game plan that got him a win over Gadzhiyasulov. It might not be exciting, but Lopes is catching Jacoby at the right time in his career to potentially add a big name to his resume.
Final Dustin Jacoby-Bruno Lopes Prediction & Pick: Bruno Lopes (+164), Over 2.5 Rounds (-115)
