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The Main Card of UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales is finally here as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. UFC veteran and Xtreme Couture product Julian Erosa will square-off against Brazil's own Melquizael Costa. Check the UFC odds series for our Erosa-Costa prediction and pick.
Julian Erosa (31-11) has gone 9-7 inside the UFC since 2015. Following back-to-back losses, Julian Erosa has found a new gear with three-straight wins over Ricardo Ramos, Christian Rodriguez, and Darren Elkins. He'll look to continue this run as the betting underdog once again. Erosa stands 6-foot-1 with a 74.5-inch reach.
Melquizael Costa (23-7) has gone 4-2 since joining the UFC in 2023. In bouncing back from a loss to Steve Garcia, Costa has won three-straight fights of his own against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, Andre Fili, and Christian Rodriguez. He'll come in the betting favorite in what should be a close fight. Costa stands 5-foot-10 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Julian Erosa-Melquizael Costa Odds
Julian Erosa: +150
Melquizael Costa: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -154
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Why Julian Erosa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Darren Elkins – TKO (combination strikes, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 12 KO/TKO, 14 SUB
Julian Erosa turned in another sensational performance with a standing TKO over a tough fighter to finish in Darren Elkins. It marked his third consecutive victory by way of finish with all three coming in the first round. Erosa hasn't fought past the first round in his last five fights dating back to 2022, but it's good to see him on the right side as of recently.
Erosa thrives during chaotic points of the fight and his chin has helped him fight his way back from a deficit numerous times. He's dangerous in unloading a barrage of strike, averaging 6.4 significant landed per minute, while also landing just under two takedowns per fight. Given his ability to finish the fight from everywhere, Erosa wastes no time in initiating the action and trying to tire his opponent out.
To win this fight, Erosa will have to bait the otherwise technical Costa into making a mistake and falling behind in this fight. We haven't seen Erosa in the later rounds in quiet some time, so I expect him to continue starting fast and looking to get out of there with a finish. Costa has been submitted in the past and Erosa can certainly do the same during a chaotic wrestling scramble.
Why Melquizael Costa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Christian Rodriguez – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Melquizael Costa is also looking for his fourth consecutive win as he finished two of those fights via submission. He's one of the more dangerous submission artists in the division at the moment and he's extremely fast in transitioning through his grappling positions. He's a threat from his back as well as targeting leg locks and heel hooks, so he'll be a worthy opponent for another strong grappler like Erosa.
Costa also shines with his technical and tradition Muay Thai striking. He's very active with his kicks to all three levels and will blitz on occasion after he settles into his stance. He's certainly the more polished kickboxer of the two and his defensive guard is more sound at 52%, but he'll have to avoid any mistakes that could let Erosa hang around during this fight.
Ultimately, Costa has to like his chances against another exciting fighter given his ability to stick with his technique despite what his opponent may be doing. On the ground, he'll certainly be the quicker man and his striking should hold up as an issue for Erosa throughout this one.
Final Julian Erosa-Melquizael Costa Prediction & Pick
With both fighters seeking their fourth-straight win, we'll be in for another high-level fight to open this Main Card with both sides feeling hot. Julian Erosa continues to find success in the first round and will be most dangerous to stop this fight in the opening minutes. Costa is more intent on playing the long game with his striking, but his ability to finish the fight is right up there, if not better than Erosa's.
We still have to give the slight edge to Costa in the striking and grappling and despite Erosa's ability to capitalize on moments, Costa has found himself in bad spots before and can manage a way to change the tide of this fight. I expect Costa to extend Erosa past the first round as he finds a submission win sometime during the second after Erosa initiates the grappling.
Final Julian Erosa-Melquizael Costa Prediction & Pick: Melquizael Costa (-180)
