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Seeking a spot in the notoriously stingy lightweight rankings, Jared Gordon (20-7, 1 NC) and Thiago Moises (19-8) meet in the Octagon at UFC Vegas 106. It is time to continue our UFC odds series with a Jared Gordon-Thiago Moises prediction and pick.
Gordon, 36, is known for his rotten luck with the judges' scorecards in the UFC. Though officially 8-6 with one no-contest in the promotion, many feel he deserved to earn the nod in his two most recent losses to Nasrat Haqparast and Paddy Pimblett. Instead, coming off a split-decision defeat against Haqparast, he looks for his first win since finishing Mark O. Madsen at UFC 295.
As the ultimate divisional gatekeeper, Moises, 30, enters the fight off a unanimous decision win over Trey Ogden at UFC Vegas 101. Alternating wins and losses in his last five fights, a win would give Moises his first win streak since 2023. Like Gordon, Moises' 8-6 UFC record appears middling at first glance, but five of his six Octagon defeats have come against ranked opponents.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Jared Gordon-Thiago Moises Odds
Jared Gordon: -120
Thiago Moises: +100
Over 2.5 rounds: -330
Under 2.5 rounds: +240
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Why Jared Gordon Will Win
Officially, Gordon is 2-3-1 since 2022, but any fan closely following his career knows how just a few alternative turns could have changed the entire trajectory of his career. In an alternate universe, he is 4-0 with one no-contest in his last five fights and should be the only fighter to defeat Paddy Pimblett in the UFC. Very aware of this fact, Gordon is hell-bent on righting the wrongs against Moises.
On paper, nothing about Gordon is flashy. He is void of elite athleticism, power or speed, making him seem like an average fighter. Yet, few throw combinations as frequently and precisely as he does, with as much attention to little details. His cardio is always on point, and his footwork and hand placement are rarely off-key. The only fighters to ever out-strike Gordon knocked him flat out cold, which Moises has not done since winning his fight on Dana White's Contender Series with a head kick.
When looking at Moises' record, he only loses to the best in the division. However, on that token, the same can be said about Gordon. With the exception of Makhachev and Dariush, Moises was out-struck in each of his losses in the Octagon. His striking is better than he gets credit for, but Moises lands just 2.5 significant strikes per minute while absorbing nearly double the amount.
Why Thiago Moises Will Win
Moises and Gordon post similar measurements with the same height and a two-inch difference in reach, but their frames are noticeably different. Despite both officially standing 5-foot-9, Gordon spent much of his career at featherweight, a division in which Moises has only competed once. Neither has ever competed in a state that records fight-night weight, but Moises' frame is visibly wider than that of Gordon.
The experienced Moises is a well-rounded fighter, but he makes his money with his grappling. Statistically, Gordon is the better striker of the two, but lacks fight-ending power in his hands. The fighters who have given Moises the most issues in his career were often bigger, more powerful strikers who hurt him on the feet. Benoit Saint-Denis, Joel Alvarez, and Ľudovit Klein — the three fighters Moises most recently lost to — all hurt him in their exchanges. Gordon has just one knockdown in his 15-fight UFC career.
If Moises loses to Gordon, it would be easily the worst loss of his UFC career. He has only two losses to fighters outside of the current top-15 rankings. One came against Klein, who is getting his shot against Mateusz Gamrot at the end of the month, and the other against Damir Ismagulov, who left the promotion when he was ranked No. 11.
Final Jared Gordon-Thiago Moises Lopes Prediction & Pick
If this fight is a 15-minute striking battle, Gordon will be in it until the end. Neither guy has much knockout power on the feet, with Gordon's relentless pressure and volume typically troubling everyone he faces. The problem for him will be keeping it there, as he has struggled against similar fighters in the past.
Though Gordon decisively beat the last two grapplers he faced, Mark Madsen and Leonardo Santos, both fought him well after celebrating their 40th birthdays. The last time he fought a grappler in his complete form, Grant Dawson floored him seven times before sinking in a rear-naked choke. Dawson, coincidentally, has the same coaches as Moises, with the fighters sharing a gym at American Top Team.
With just a 35 percent takedown success rate, Moises is not the most efficient wrestler in the UFC. Gordon has historically been a solid defensive wrestler, but the size advantage for the Brazilian should work in his favor. Moises, whose thudding leg kicks are severely underrated, simply has more ways to win and has seen everything the division has to offer. Gordon will have to be near-perfect for 15 minutes for his point-fighting style to work against one of the most underrated fighters in the lightweight division.
Final Jared Gordon-Thiago Moises Prediction & Pick: Thiago Moises (+100), Over 2.5 Rounds (-330)
