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UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns versus Michael Morales continues the main card Saturday with a fight between Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev in the middleweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Stoltzfus-Ruziboev prediction and pick.
Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6) rebounded from a TKO loss to Brunno Ferreira by knocking out Marc-André Barriault in the first round at UFC Fight Night 246, earning a Performance of the Night bonus. Now Stoltzfus looks to build on that momentum and halt Nursulton Ruziboev’s rise at UFC Vegas 106 this Saturday night.
Nursulton Ruziboev (35-9-2) bounced back from a decision loss at welterweight by returning to middleweight and knocking out Eric McConico in the second round this February. Previously, Ruziboev stopped Sedriques Dumas in the first round. Now he looks to extend his unbeaten middleweight UFC run against Dustin Stoltzfus at UFC Vegas 106.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Dustin Stoltzfus-Nursulton Ruziboev Odds
Dustin Stoltzfus: +240
Nursulton Ruziboev: -298
Over 1.5 rounds: -105
Under 1.5 rounds: -125
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Why Dustin Stoltzfus Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Marc-Andre Barriault – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 (3 KO/TKO/6 SUB)
Dustin Stoltzfus has a clear path to victory over Nursulton Ruziboev at UFC Vegas 106 by leveraging his wrestling and grappling advantage. Stoltzfus averages 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing them at a 41% success rate, and attempts more submissions per fight than Ruziboev.
While Ruziboev is known for his finishing ability, he has shown vulnerability to being taken down as seen in his bout with Joaquin Buckley, where he was dragged to the mat multiple times.
If Stoltzfus can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, secure early takedowns, and maintain top control, he can neutralize Ruziboev’s striking power and limit his opportunities to land fight-ending shots.
Stoltzfus also boasts a higher output of significant strikes landed per minute (3.47 to Ruziboev’s 2.75), and his recent first-round knockout of Marc-André Barriault demonstrates his improving power and confidence on the feet.
If Stoltzfus can mix his striking with well-timed takedown entries and avoid prolonged exchanges at distance, he has the tools to grind out rounds or even threaten with submissions. By dictating the pace and keeping Ruziboev on the defensive, Stoltzfus can secure a hard-fought decision or late finish, pulling off the upset this weekend.
Why Nursulton Ruziboev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Eric McConico – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 33 (13 KO/TKO/20 SUB)
Nursulton Ruziboev is poised to extend his middleweight dominance against Dustin Stoltzfus at UFC Vegas 106, leveraging his explosive power and finishing instincts. Ruziboev boasts 33 career stoppages (13 KOs), including a second-round knockout of Eric McConico in February, and his 6'5″ frame and 76″ reach give him a significant striking advantage.
While Stoltzfus averages more takedowns (2.31 per 15 minutes), Ruziboev’s 85% takedown accuracy and ability to counter with submissions (0.6 attempts per 15 minutes) make him a threat in grappling exchanges.
Stoltzfus, despite recent momentum, absorbs 3.29 strikes per minute and has been vulnerable to pressure, as seen in his TKO loss to Brunno Ferreira. Ruziboev’s precision (44% striking accuracy) and power should exploit these defensive gaps early.
Ruziboev’s adaptability further tilts the scales. Though Stoltzfus’ wrestling could pose challenges, Ruziboev’s performance against Joaquin Buckley's durable five-round decision loss proves he can withstand high-pressure opponents. Stoltzfus’ takedown entries rely on body locks, which Ruziboev’s size and balance (6-5, 185 pounds) can neutralize.
Additionally, Ruziboev’s 50% striking defense and counterpunching acumen align well against Stoltzfus’ tendency to brawl. With 13 first-round finishes, Ruziboev’s urgency to dictate the pace and avoid prolonged grappling scrambles will likely lead to a decisive knockout, continuing his ascent in the division.
Final Dustin Stoltzfus-Nursulton Ruziboev Prediction & Pick
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus at UFC Vegas 106 promises fireworks with both fighters known for their finishing instincts and willingness to engage. Ruziboev enters as the betting favorite, boasting a 6-foot-5 frame, a 76-inch reach, and a remarkable record of 35-9-2 with 33 career stoppages.
He’s 3-0 at middleweight in the UFC with all wins coming inside the distance and recently dispatched Eric McConico in the second round. Ruziboev’s power, size, and explosiveness make him a constant threat early, and his 85% takedown accuracy ensures he can dictate where the fight takes place.
While Stoltzfus lands more significant strikes per minute (3.47 to Ruziboev’s 2.75), Ruziboev’s 44% accuracy and 50% striking defense make him efficient and dangerous in exchanges.
Stoltzfus, coming off a first-round knockout of Marc-André Barriault, will look to implement his wrestling, averaging 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, Ruziboev’s finishing ability and knack for capitalizing on mistakes could spell trouble if Stoltzfus cannot secure control early.
Expect Stoltzfus to have moments, especially if he can get top position, but Ruziboev’s power and submission threat make him more likely to score a finish. The most probable outcome is Ruziboev landing a fight-ending shot or snatching a submission in the opening rounds, continuing his ascent in the middleweight division.
Final Dustin Stoltzfus-Nursulton Ruziboev Prediction & Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev (-298), Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
