Dylan Cease heads to the mound for the San Diego Padres as they face the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Pirates prediction and pick.
Padres-Pirates Projected Starters
Dylan Cease vs. Bailey Falter
Dylan Cease (11-8) with a 3.42 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP
Last Start: Cease went 5.23 innings in his previous start, giving up three hits and three walks. He would surrender just one run, in a win over the Dodgers.
2024 Road Splits: In 12 road start, Cease is 6-3 this year with a 3.66 ERA. He also has a .182 opponent batting average on the road.
Bailey Falter (5-7) with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP
Last Start: Faltern went 5.1 innings in his previous start, giving up six hits and a home run. He would surrender two runs, with just one earned, in a win over the Astros.
2024 Home Splits: Falters is 2-3 in eight homes starting this year. He has a 3.83 ERA and a .246 opponent batting average at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Pirates Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -164
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: +138
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How to Watch Padres vs. Pirates
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
TV: SDPA/SNP
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres are tenth in the majors in runs scored, while sitting first in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage, and ninth in slugging. Jurickson Profar has led the way this year. He is hitting .300 on the year with a .393 on-base percentage. Profar has 19 home runs, 71 RBIs and 63 runs scored this year. All of those marks lead the team this year. Jake Cronenworth is also having a great this year. He is hitting .250 this year with a .319 on-base percentage. Cronenworth has 14 home runs and 63 RBIS while also scoring 53 times. Rounding out the top bats on the year is Manny Machado. He is hitting .272 on the year with a .325 on-base percentage. He has 17 home runs and 61 RBIS while scoring 54 times.
Machado is also hitting well in the last week. He is hitting .474 over the last week with a .524 on-base percentage. Machado has three home runs and five RBIs while scoring five times. Also driving in runs is Jurickson Profar. He is hitting just .278 in the last week but with a .409 on-base percentage. He has a home run and four RBIs while scoring four times. Xander Bogaerts is also hitting well. In the last week, he is hitting .316 with two RBIs. He has also stolen a base and scored three times.
Current Padres have just ten career at-bats against Bailey Falter. They have hit well though, hitting .400 with a home run. Manny Machado is one-for-one with a solo home run. Meanwhile, Jake Cronenworth is also one for one with a walk, while Luis Arraez is one for two with a double and a walk.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates are tied for 21st in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 25th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging. Bryan Reynolds has led the way this year. He is hitting .289 on the year. with a .358 on-base percentage. Reynolds has 19 home runs and 66 RBIs, while he has stolen six bases and scored 51 times. Meanwhile, Oneil Cruz has been solid as well. He is hitting .255 with a .308 on-base percentage. Cruz has 17 home runs and 56 RBIS. He has also stolen 11 bases and scored 51 times. Nick Gonalez has also been solid this year. He is hitting .258 on the year with five home runs. He has also driven in 39 runs and scored 28 times in just 65 games.
Michael A. Taylor has been driving in plenty of runs in the last week. He is hitting just .167 this week, going just three for 18. Still, he has scored every time he has hit, scoring three times, while also having two home runs and eight RBIs. Bryan Reynolds is also hot. He is hitting .304 in the last week with a home run and five RBIs. Reynolds has also scored twice. Rounding out the hot bats is Joey Bart. Bart is hitting .364 in the last week with two home runs, five RBIs and six runs scored.
The Pirates have 35 career at-bats against Dylan Cease. The majority of them come from Michael A. Taylor. Taylor is just one for 18 against Cease with seven strikeouts. Ke'Bryan Hayes has the most success, going two for four with a triple and two RBIs. Meanwhile, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is two for five, while Bryan De La Crus is one for three with a double against Cease.
Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick
Not only does Dylan Cease have a no-hitter this year, but he also is tied for seventh in wins, seventh in WHIP, and first in the majors in strikeouts. The Padres have the better bats overall in this one, while also having an offense that is scoring well. It will be tough for the Pirates to score in this one, so take the Padres to get the win.
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Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Padres ML (-164)
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