The Kansas City Chiefs are still the defending AFC Champions and the kings of the conference until someone knocks them off in the postseason, but they have been oddly frustrating this season. While some of their struggles can be attributed to some of their top weapons being out of the lineup at the start of the season, Kansas City has also lost some winnable games on its schedule.
The latest of that bunch came against the Buffalo Bills, who looked extremely vulnerable on defense before shutting down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' passing attack in a 28-21 win. Now, the Chiefs come out of their bye week at 5-4, right on the edge of the AFC playoff picture.
Things aren't getting any easier for Kansas City, as it has the first of two games against the Denver Broncos in Week 11. The Broncos are currently 8-2 and are tied for the best record in the NFL, so the Chiefs will have to play some of their best football in order to get the win.
Despite the records and the game being in Denver, Kansas City still comes into this one as a 3.5-point favorite. How can they get the win? Two things need to go right.
Don't let the Broncos establish the run
The weakness of this Broncos team lies in one place: quarterback Bo Nix. Sean Payton lifts the floor of this offense, but he is forced to protect Nix a bit with his conservative play-calling, especially in clear passing downs.
Even when the Broncos are faced with second-and-long or third-and-long, Payton often opts for runs or screens, clearly protecting Nix from true dropback situations. Even when the second-year passer is asked to throw the ball downfield, it is often on rollouts or other simplified plays that cut the field in half for him.
If the Chiefs are able to force the Broncos into those situations, they will have a big advantage. In order to do that, they need to stop the run on early downs.
This is a pretty average Broncos rushing attack, ranking near the middle of the pack in both rushing success rate (42.2%) and EPA per rush (negative-0.01), per Next Gen Stats. JK Dobbins also may not play in this game due to a foot injury that forced him to miss practice on Wednesday, so it will be harder for Denver to do damage between the tackles.
The Chiefs have been a slightly below average run defense this season, but this is a Denver ground game that it should be able to handle, especially off a bye week.
When the Broncos do get into obvious passing downs, Nix has been hampered at times this season by poor footwork and erratic play in the pocket. His mind seems to be sped up a bit when going through the progression, and playing against Steve Spagnuolo and his exotic looks on passing downs should only put those things under a microscope. If the Chiefs can get into those spots often enough, they will have chances to force some mistakes from Nix.
Get the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hand quickly
When Patrick Mahomes first emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, he held onto the ball for what seemed like forever. Nobody made more plays out of nothing than Mahomes, who excelled at running around in the backfield and creating explosive plays backyard football-style.
While he can still do that at times, the three-time Super Bowl champ has become ruthlessly efficient from the pocket, picking apart defenses in rhythm and on schedule. Over the last few seasons, he has consistently shown up with some of the lowest time to throw numbers in football.
That is true once again this season, as Mahomes is getting the ball out of his hands on average in 2.69 seconds, good for the fifth-fastest mark in the league. That number is a big reason why he has been pressured on just 25.7% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest number in football.
This week, it will be nearly impossible to avoid the pressure against a Broncos pass rush that is one of the best in recent memory in the NFL. Denver leads the league in sacks with 46, 14 more than the Steelers and Seahawks in second place. Denver is getting pressure on a league-high 42.9% of opposing dropbacks, more than two percent higher than second place.
Nik Bonitto is building a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year case, and the rest of the Broncos' front is elite as well. Mahomes and the Chiefs will be keen on helping out the offensive line with chips and extra blockers while also making an effort to get the ball out quickly.
If they can do that, Kansas City will have the advantage due to the injuries that the Broncos are dealing with. The Chiefs have the tools to utilize the middle of the field in Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy is explosive after the catch on the perimeter.
Denver will be playing without Patrick Surtain II (shoulder) and Alex Singleton, who had a cancerous tumor removed after the Broncos' Week 10 win over the Raiders. Linebacker Karene Reid also just was placed on IR due to a hamstring injury, so the Broncos are depleted in the back seven coming into this game.
Denver is still well-coached and has some standouts in the secondary, most notably free agent addition Talanoa Hufanga. However, if Mahomes can get the ball out on time, those Chiefs pass-catchers should have space to operate and will have the ability to make big plays happen after the catch.
