NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 11: Big-game Sunday

Week 10 was full of surprises as there were plenty of upsets and fascinating finishes. Will we get more of the same in Week 11? We’ll start to find out on Thursday night, as the New York Jets visit the New England Patriots in an AFC East clash. Ahead of that, here is the ClutchPoints 2025 NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column.

As we careen toward the stretch run, the conferences are in interesting and wildly different spots. In the NFC, it is the usual suspects fighting for the crown. The Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, and the normal assortment of NFC West squads are all in position to do battle in the postseason.

On the AFC side, though, after a half-decade of the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens at the top, those three teams are fighting for their lives while franchises like the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts are making this season look like the early 2000s.

This week, we welcome back the four teams that sat out last week, which are the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and Tennessee Titans, while we say goodbye to only the Colts and New Orleans Saints for a few days.

Here in Week 10, we get a Thursday night game, the first-ever 9:30 am ET kick from Madrid, Spain, seven 1:00 p.m. ET games, four late-window tilts, a Sunday night affair, and a Monday night showdown.

After a rough couple of weeks, we got back to our winning ways in Week 10, coming up on the plus side both straight up (8-6) and against the spread (7-6-1). These results bring us up to 87-62 straight up and 70-78-1 ATS on the season.

Previous weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10

So, let’s get right into the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12.5)

Ok, so we said here at the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column that we’d start believing in the Patriots more if they went down to Tampa Bay and beat the Buccaneers, which they did. And generally, we do truly believe they are for real this season.

That said, this is a Thursday night division game, and we know that these are often way closer than advertised. Plus, the public is going all in on the Pats rocking the Jets in Foxborough. So, while we can’t quite get to a Jets upset, we will take the points for Gang Green.

Pick: Patriots 20-10

Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Another thing we worry about here at the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column is 9:30 am ET games in Europe, and the first-ever game in Madrid, Spain, fits the bill. With no rhyme or reason to how these games go, we’ll just have to treat this like a normal game.

Looking at the Dolphins, who are playing better of late, and the Commanders, who are decimated by injuries, you have to favor the former. It’s never fun to bet on Miami, but in this case, we’ll hold our nose and give the points.

Pick: Dolphins 16-9

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

While we’ve changed our tune a bit on the Patriots and Dolphins in recent weeks, we still can’t get there with the Bears, despite back-to-back wins and a 6-3 record on the season. Beating the Bengals and Giants the last two weeks in wildly improbable ways has done nothing to make us worry less about Caleb Williams and his ability to win big games.

Even though J.J. McCarthy hasn’t assuaged those fears yet either, the difference maker here is the Vikings D, which has struggled lately against good teams, but should be able to harass Williams a bit more than most. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores knows Ben Johnson well, and this matchup will go the way of the DC.

Pick: Vikings 26-21

Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants

Here comes the new coach bump! Even with Jameison Winston starting (and maybe even because of it), the Giants will give the Packers a hard time in Northern New Jersey this week. The Packers’ offense isn’t the same without Tucker Kraft, and it’s hard to figure out what they can figure out as an alternative.

The temptation here is to take the Packers but give the points. However, with the new coach bump, Winston, and the way the Giants are playing lately, maybe they will finally finish off a game where they are up in the fourth quarter and get the upset.

Pick: Giants 28-27

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

It’s hard to imagine the Panthers going on the road and beating the Falcons for the second time this season, but it’s easy to imagine the Falcons completely forgetting to show up for the game despite being the better and more in-form team. It’s what they’ve done like every other game this season.

Still, we have a little belief left in the Dirty Birds, especially with the way the young defense is playing. That unit alone should be enough to get them past Bryce Young and company, and if the offense shows up, too, this could be a blowout.

Pick: Falcons 28-16

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column has to apologize to Justin Herbert and the Chargers, as we didn’t think they could get it done last week with all the offensive line injuries. Yes, the Steelers stink, but the Bolts’ defense played well, and the offense did enough to win and keep itself in the hunt.

This week, LA takes on another underachieving team on the other side of the country. If the Jaguars were ever going to salvage the season and show a little fight, this would be the game they have to do it. It just doesn’t seem like they can.

Pick: Chargers 21-14

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

Joe Burrow’s return is near, but fans still get at least one more week of Joe Flacco slinging the ball all over the field to the two best receivers he’s ever played with. So, that’s fun! What is also fun is that the Bengals are coming off a bye, and the Steelers are circling the drain.

We all know the stat that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record, and at 5-4, he’s still trending in that direction. However, if anyone can sink Tomlin’s battleship, it’s a geriatric Aaron Rodgers, who doesn’t want to get hit, not throw it deep downfield anymore. The Bengals won’t hit him much, but Flacco’s passing will force the Steelers to throw more, which has the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column smelling upset.

Pick: Bengals 35-33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

There are two schools of thought here, after the Bills choked another division game away, losing to the Dolphins. One is that, to quote Michael Ray Richardson, “The ship be sinking” in Buffalo. The other is that this is one of the few times you will get Josh Allen against a beatable team getting less than a touchdown at home.

Option one is a legit possibility, but we’ll go at least one more week thinking the Bills will figure it out, making option two more plausible. We’re not super confident in this one, but give us the Bills to win by at least a TD at home.

Pick: Bills 31-24

Houston Texans (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans

This game is a lot different if it is Davis Mills under center instead of C.J. Stroud. As of Thursday afternoon, it looks like Mills will get another start. Yes, the Texans defense will dominate here, but coming off a bye, the Titans should have a little extra juice against a second-string QB. The NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column will still take Houston, but only by a field goal.

Pick: Texans 16-13

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

The graphic on this piece calls the Sunday night showdown between the Lions and Eagles the Game of the Week, but if you want to call this the best game on the NFL Week 11 slate, you wouldn’t be wrong either. This is a matchup of two of the best teams in the league, and a divisional game to boot.

This game will be tight, and the biggest factor is actually how good the Seahawks have been on the road this year. The Rams don’t have a huge home-field advantage on a good day, and with the Seahawks playing like they are away from Seattle, we’ll take Sam Darnold and company to win straight up.

Pick: Seahawks 28-27

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

If we’re talking about sinking ships and lost seasons, make sure to include the Cardinals in that category. Last week, we pinned our projections on the fact that Jacoby Brissett is, well, Jacoby Brissett, and there is a reason he’s not a long-term starting quarterback. This week, the same holds true, and now he doesn’t have Marvin Harrison Jr.

The NFC West is wild this year, and three teams may make the playoffs. If the 49ers hope to be that third team, they need to get this win. Either the Seahawks or Rams will pick up a loss this week, and with the Cardinals, Panthers, and Browns coming up, it’s time for the 49ers to pad their win column.

Pick: 49ers 26-12

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos

The Chiefs are 2.5 games behind the Broncos for the AFC West crown, so if KC hopes to have a game at Arrowhead this winter, this game is massive. And with Andy Reid and company coming off a bye, they should be ready to roar in Denver.

On the flip side, Denver has been winning, but it hasn’t been impressive by any means. Outside of shellacking the Cowboys, the Broncos’ last five wins have come by a total of 13 points. That’s not good enough to take down the Chiefs coming off a bye, even at home.

Pick: Chiefs 32-22

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders may or may not be a starting NFL quarterback. We just don’t know yet. It is becoming increasingly clear, though, that Dillon Gabriel is not. Despite a talented defense, the QB play has been so bad for the Browns, that there is almost no way they will get this win.

The Ravens are in desperation mode, too. With four wins through 11 weeks, Lamar Jackson and company need at least six wins in their next eight games to make the playoffs. And with Patriots, Packers, and two Steelers games still on the schedule, they have to get the W this week.

Pick: Ravens 27-15

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

This game will cap off Week 11 with a bang, as two of the best teams in the NFC go head-to-head on Sunday Night Football. These teams will likely meet again in the playoffs, so this should be a fun appetizer to that.

This will be a close game, and with the A.J. Brown drama, you could see the Eagles struggling. However, this is now an annual occurrence, and it usually isn’t a major problem on game day. Ultimately, in a game this close, we’ll take points, and if we’re doing that, the NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds column will take the Lions to win straight up.

Pick: Lions 26-25

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders looked OK in prime time last week, which is an upgrade from terrible, as they’ve looked most of the year. Their 10-7 loss to the Broncos wasn’t pretty, but you have to salute the effort.

The Cowboys are coming off their bye, but also reeling from two blowout losses before that. They also suffered a tragic loss this week after the death of Marshawn Kneeland. In situations like this, a game is often a respite for a team dealing with heavy hearts, so the Cowboys should be locked in and will get the W for their fallen teammate.

Pick: Cowboys 33-16

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