Blake Griffin is currently listed at +650 odds to somehow land with the Los Angeles Lakers.
As ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Monday, Griffin, like fellow former All-Star big man Andre Drummond — and much to the chagrin of Draymond Green — will be placed in hoops purgatory as his reps and the Detroit Pistons work out an agreement to part ways.
Through 20 games, the 31-year old is averaging 12.3 points and 5.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game — a significant drop-off in production from his stellar 2018-19 campaign, in which he averaged 24.5 PPG. More alarmingly, the one-time high-flyer has been utterly grounded by, most recently, a season-ending knee surgery last year, which limited him to 18 unremarkable games in 2019-20. In fact, Griffin hasn't dunked this season.
According to the bookmakers, the Lakers are the fourth-likeliest destination for Griffin, trailing his hometown Oklahoma City Thunder (+325), the Miami Heat (+350), and Boston Celtics (+600), and tied with the Charlotte Hornets (+650). That figure can be attributed to a few predictable factors: For one, Griffin would prefer to join a contender, he obviously has L.A. ties and the Lakers are temporarily down a big after the injury to Anthony Davis.
Griffin is a likable dude and a splashy name. There may be Lakers fans who are initially enticed by the notion of adding the six-time All-Star, with the hope that he can provide depth as his knees are magically rejuvenated by a move back West and into contention.
The Lakers do have an empty roster spot, presumably on reserve for a late-season buyout addition. However, because the signings of Montrezl Harrell and Wes Matthews hard-capped the team at $138.9 million, the Lakers cannot legally fill that spot until Feb. 24, unless they waive locker-room favorite Quinn Cook. By the time the buyout market heats up in early March, Davis could be close to returning (though the Lakers should be extra-cautious with him).
Additionally, there are significant fiscal obstacles for any team hoping to acquire Griffin. He's owed $36.6 million this season and $38 million in 2021-22 — assuming he picks up his player-option — rendering a clean buyout with Detroit unlikely unless he’s willing to eat heaping sums of money.
Assuming Griffin wants to collect his checks, a franchise looking to swing a trade for Griffin before the March 25 deadline would need to find a way to match the salaries. For the Lakers, who have five players earning more than $3.7 million, that would be nearly impossible without surrendering James, Davis, Montrezl Harrell, Dennis Schröder, or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — all of whom are more effective than Griffin.
And, in the abstract, the idea of blowing up the rotation for Griffin — or anyone besides Bradley Beal, for that matter — is unwise. After all, the defending champions are 21-7 with a playoff-tested roster and the best player on the planet.
To be fair, it’s always possible that Griffin is somewhat reinvigorated if he were to don the purple-and-gold, and the Lakers could certainly use another three-point shooter. After a hot start from the perimeter, the Lakers have gone cold from beyond the arc. They ranked second in the NBA in percentage on New Year's Day, and have since plummeted to 17th.
As Griffin’s athleticism has diminished, his reputation from downtown has improved, though that narrative may have already expired. In 2018-19, he shot 36.2% on a career-high seven attempts per game, but, in the 38 games (total) he’s played since he’s made just 28.1% on his triples on 6.2 attempts per outing.
Griffin still brings solid playmaking skills, though the Lakers are not desperate for mild improvements in that area, even sans Davis.
In theory, adding Griffin could allow the Lakers to slide him into the starting five and keep their second-unit intact, but it's unclear if that would add value in any way. Overall, the ex-Lob City resident has contributed -0.5 Offensive Win Shares over the past two seasons and has a negative value compared to a replacement player (-0.4 VORP) in that time frame, per Basketball-Reference.
The Lakers predictably struggled to protect the rim following the departures of Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee (replaced by Marc Gasol and Harrell). Money aside, from a pure basketball standpoint, it makes more sense to pursue an available big-man who can provide help on that front.
The Lakers' priority should be — and is — to get healthy for the playoffs, more so than grabbing the no. 1 seed (I'm pretty sure James can win a Game 7 on the road, fans or not). Plus, it’s unclear if Griffin would help them secure wins in Davis’s absence, anyway.
If by some miracle, Griffin is bought out, Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka can reasonably weigh the pros and cons of adding 15-20 minutes of Blake per game. But, for fans eager to add the former dunk-machine with a high-Q rating and Staples Center experience — I’d preach extreme caution, especially because of the unfeasibility of a trade.
More likely, the Lakers will look elsewhere — if at all — on the buyout market, and ride out the storm until AD returns.
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