The Los Angeles Rams will seek to close out the first half of their 2020 season with a second straight win as they face the Miami Dolphins. Lining up against a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut in Tua Tagovailoa, Los Angeles is likely looking to capitalize against a team more concerned with its future, than present. Hoping to keep pace with the division leading Seahawks, the Rams desperately need a win amidst a schedule that only seems to be getting tougher.
Here are our four bold predictions for the Los Angeles Rams against the Miami Dolphins.
1. Aaron Donald will finish the day leading the NFL in sacks
Despite entering Sunday's matchup ranking ninth in sacks allowed, according to stats provided by ESPN, the Dolphins feature an offensive line that would appear susceptible to pressure from the Rams' second-ranked defense. In giving up a respectable 10 sacks over the first seven weeks of the season, Miami has utilized rookies Solomon Kindley, and Robert Hunt as the foundational pieces of a revamped line that was one of the worst in the league last year. Combined with the quick release of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins have done well on the year at mitigating losses from pressure on the quarterback, ranking fourth best in the NFL in yards lost due to sacks.
And yet, regardless of the counting stats, there remains reason to believe that the group still remains a vulnerability for the surprising AFC East contender.
Though the nimbleness and pace of Fitzpatrick may have succeeded in avoiding a sack being recorded, the Dophins' QB operated with pressure on an astounding 40% of his passing plays–third worst in the league per Pro Football Focus–and ranked in the bottom 10 in INT's, due to the accompanying pace. Combined with their inability to open holes for a running game ranked a mere 22nd in the NFL, and it would appear that the lack of tackles for a loss on the Dolphins' play callers may be a statistical oddity, rather than an indicator of an improved offensive line.
Expect those numbers to come crashing down to earth Sunday afternoon.
Operating against arguably the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald, Miami will have few options in seeking to keep their rookie quarterback upright. While double-teams on Donald are to be expected, the DT has still managed to score an impressive pass-rush win rate of 22%–second in the league according to ESPN–despite the extra attention. Moving him around the line in attempt to create favorable matchups, the Rams will likely have their corners apply heavy pressure to their targets in an attempt to mitigate the type of quick release that Tua shares with Fitzpatrick, buying an additional second for their all-pro tackle to get to the rookie.
Led by a savvy head coach in Brian Flores, Miami may counsel patience for their young quarterback, choosing sacks over the type of interceptions that have thwarted them all season. That would be perfectly fine for the Rams and Aaron Donald.
2. Los Angeles will accrue 250 rushing yards
Despite the reputation of head coach Sean McVay as an aggressive play caller who likes to stretch the field, as well as the loss of former all-pro running back Todd Gurley to free agency in the offseason, the Rams have leaned into their rushing attack all season. Lead by a triumvirate of backs in Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, and Darrell Henderson Jr., LA has risen to second in the league in rushing attempts, as they have utilized the ground game to control the clock–losing the battle of possession only twice in games thus far.
While the emphasis on the running game is certain to help the play-action attack for which McVay and company have become known, the adjustment seems to have accompanied a switch in philosophy as Los Angeles has prized short-yardage gains over the type of big plays that were frequent in their SuperBowl season. Rather than a deep pass to former wideout Brandon Cooks, the Rams are much more likely to feature an outlet screen-pass to one of their halfbacks, that freezes the defense for a more modest gain.
Playing against a Miami defensive line that ranks a mere 18th in opponent's rushing yards, it's likely that McVay will take what the defense gives him, and attempt to bulldoze his way to another victory.
Though they only rank in the middle of the pack in terms of yards-per-rush–a respectable, if unspectacular 4.4 ypr–it seems inevitable that Los Angeles will have the type of big yardage day that their peripherals would seem to suggest is on it's way. Operating on the field with a Dolphins' secondary that seems on its way to become elite–if it isn't already–the Rams will try to control the field in an attempt to mitigate any opportunity for Tua to throw the contest into a shootout. Should LA's veteran offensive line neutralize interior D-lineman Davon Godchaux, all three of the Rams' halfbacks should find the space to keep the Dolphins' prized quarterback off the field.
3. New Rams kicker Kai Forbath will start his LA tenure perfect in attempts
In a league where notable midseason acquisitions rarely occur, the addition of a kicker to a squad generally never even merits a mention for most covering the league. While the Rams' signing of journeyman kicker Kai Forbath is unlikely to effect the team's season except at the margins, that may be enough to alter the franchise's fate in a division whose last place finisher, may have a better record than the winner of the NFC East.
Having released rookie Samuel Sloman following his performance against the San Francisco 49ers, in which he missed an extra point and was called out by McVay in his post-game press conference, the signing of Forbath gives LA a placekicker who ranks eight among active players with an 86% success on field goals.
Given that the Rams will likely employ a more conservative style of approach against the Dolphins Sunday afternoon, its likely that the nine-year veteran will have an early chance to make an impression for his new team.
4. Rams earn a comfortable win, 28-14
It's not difficult to imagine what a Dolphins' win Sunday looks like. Their rookie play caller displays his dynamic skillset, dancing around the Rams' pressure as Miami sprints out to an early lead, and forces Los Angeles to respond in a shootout that requires Jared Goff to put up big numbers and the Rams' secondary to make consistent stops against the deep threat, limiting the impact Donald can have. A type of game that LA can certainly win, but probably not consistently.
Thankfully for Los Angeles, Sean McVay has proven himself capable of adapting to whatever reality his roster calls for.
When given a team headlined by Gurley and several blue-chippers, he constructed an attack that was as fast, as it was deadly, giving us the classic Chiefs-Rams Monday night showdown that was the perfect encapsulation of the team. Now leading a team without the world altering talent of a Gurley, McVay has crafted a more egalitarian approach, emphasizing ball control and middle-yardage and relying on Aaron Donald and company to put him in field position to maximize scoring opportunities.
With the whole of the NFL eagerly anticipating the debut of Tua–and rightfully so–it's just as likely that McVay and the Rams will score another win with their ho-hum approach that may be a far cry from their past offensives, but is no less effective.
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