Less than two weeks ago the Seattle Mariners were in first place in the AL West riding high off a 21-win August. Now, on Sept. 13, the Mariners are in third place, looking up at the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros, albeit with a thin margin separating the three. Thus is the craziness of an MLB division race with less than three weeks left in the season.
The Astros hold a one-game lead over the Rangers, with the Mariners a half-game behind Texas. Not only are the three teams locked into a tight battle for the division crown, but they're also trying to secure the No. 2 seed in the American League playoffs, as well as a postseason berth in general.
Two of the three teams are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs at this point. All three of them can, realistically, but winning the division usually puts a team in a better spot. It would probably mean a little bit more to the Mariners and their fans, who haven’t celebrated a division title since 2001.
The Mariners have plenty of talent on the roster and are being carried by that talent throughout this second-half surge. Julio Rodriguez is pulling out clutch moments and putting Seattle on his back, while the Mariners' pitching staff remains one of the best all-around staffs in the sport. There's one arm whose scuffled lately though and it would benefit Seattle greatly if he was able to figure things out and return to his All-Star form.
Detailing Kirby's struggles
George Kirby wasted no time establishing himself as a major league pitcher. He sped through the minor leagues, making his Mariners debut less than three years after being taken in the first round. He threw a six-inning shutout in his first start and has maintained a career ERA of 3.44 through 52 MLB starts.
Kriby's last four starts weren’t what he or the Mariners expected though, and there's perhaps some concern that his best stuff has been lost. He put together his best performance of the season on Aug. 12 against the AL-best Baltimore Orioles, tossing nine shutout innings only for the Mariners to lose 1-0 in extra innings.
Since then, Kirby allowed 14 earned runs across his last four starts. The Mariners won just one of those games and Kirby has two wins in 10 starts since the All-Star break. His second-half ERA is more than a full point higher than the first half, though his strikeout numbers have improved.
The sabermetrics say that Kirby is getting hit harder. The average launch angle of opposing hitters is up from last season, as is the expected batting average and hard-hit rate. He's missing more barrels and remains a solid strikeout pitcher, but teams are starting to dial up on his pitches more often than they ever have.
A return to consistency
Kirby went through a similar stint as a rookie with the Mariners in 2022. After two shutouts in his first five starts, Kirby had a 4.67 ERA across his next five, though he lasted six innings in three of them. Across his next 12 starts, Kirby had a 2.08 ERA and averaged over six strikeouts an outing.
He's been able to fix it before and it's impressive to see that from a young starting pitcher. The Mariners would certainly prefer to have a poised and confident George Kirby on the mound rather than a frustrated and dejected one. Kirby is as animated as any pitcher in the league, especially during a rough outing.
After his last start on Sept. 8, he stated he shouldn’t have been brought back out for the seventh inning. That's not exactly something that a team wants to hear from one of its best pitchers in the midst of a playoff push.
“I wear my emotions on my sleeve more than anyone else, and I think it's a blessing and a curse at the same time,” Kirby said, via Daniel Kramer. “Just high standards. I guess it has to do with my job is once a week and I like to go out and give my team the best chance to win every time.”
Kirby quickly addressed the situation though and cleared the air with Seattle brass and his Mariners teammates. Maybe the 2023 All-Star will take it as a fresh start for himself as the playoff race heats up. The Mariners could use a relaxed and refreshed George Kirby down the stretch, one that would definitely give them a better chance of capturing the AL West title.