The Phoenix Mercury take on the Las Vegas Aces. Our WNBA odds series has our Mercury Aces prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Mercury Aces.
The Phoenix Mercury have two women's basketball greats on their roster. Diana Taurasi is winding down her career in her early 40s, while Brittney Griner — having endured an extraordinary ordeal in Russia — is just glad to be able to play professional basketball again and attain some degree of normalcy after a harrowing, traumatizing journey she never asked for. The Mercury have two players who receive a lot of attention, and to be sure, they will remain part of the media spotlight as this WNBA season unfolds. Yet, in the shadows of those two prominent players, something special might be brewing in 2024. We could be seeing Kahleah Copper rise to the next level as an elite WNBA scorer.
Yes, it's early in the season, and yes, the Atlanta Dream have not played great defense so far this season. What we saw on Saturday night in Phoenix could primarily be the product of the Dream not being locked in at the defensive end of the floor. However, when anyone scores 38 points in a WNBA game, people take notice. They should. Copper's 38 points were impressive on their own terms, but what was even more special about that effort is that Phoenix needed every last one of those points. The Mercury squeaked out an 88-85 win over the Dream to move to 1-1 on the season.
We are a month and a half removed from the NCAA Tournament national championship game at the 2024 Final Four in suburban Phoenix, about a 25-minute drive from where the Mercury play. Why mention that game? Purdue star Zach Edey scored 37 points in that game versus Connecticut, but most of those 37 points were scored in garbage time, only after UConn had built a massive lead. Edey's 37 points in the Valley of the Sun were largely empty calories. We mention that to draw the sharp contrast with Copper, whose 38 points were clutch points, all absolutely necessary in guiding Phoenix to a narrow win. If this is the player Kahleah Copper will be for the whole season, the Mercury's ceiling will be higher than previously expected.
Here are the Mercury-Aces WNBA Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
WNBA Odds: Mercury-Aces Odds
Phoenix Mercury: +14.5 (-108)
Las Vegas Aces: -14.5 (-112)
Over: 171.5 (-110)
Under: 171.5 (-110)
How to Watch Mercury vs. Aces
TV: AZFamily, Mercury Live (Mercury) / Silver State Sports & Entertainment Network (Aces)
Stream: WNBA League Pass
Time: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
*Watch WNBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Mercury Could Cover The Spread
The spread is 14.5, and if you have seen the Aces in their first two games, you know they are 0-2 versus the spread. They have not only failed to cover big double-digit spreads; they haven't even won a game by at least 10 points this season. They beat the Mercury by only nine and the Los Angeles Sparks by only seven.
One limitation for the Aces is that guard Chelsea Gray, out with an injury for an indefinite period of time, is an important part of the championship formula coach Becky Hammon has developed. The Aces aren't at full strength or, to use a Las Vegas turn of phrase, don't hold the best cards at the poker table. They're still really good, but it's clear that without Gray, they're not at their very best. Vegas — the sportsbooks, not the team — keeps throwing up these massive point spreads, and the Aces continue to fail to cover them. Maybe you should adjust accordingly, especially since the Mercury have looked decent in their first few games, including one versus this Aces team one week ago.
Why The Aces Could Cover The Spread
The Aces are the best team in the WNBA, and so even though they are 0-2 against the spread, they are eventually going to blow the doors off an inferior team. Also keep in mind that Vegas is playing a third straight home game. This team hasn't yet played a road game this season. The Aces will be rested and fresh, and they're going to max out and play a strong game before too long. When they do, they're going to win by 20 to 25 points.
Final Mercury-Aces Prediction & Pick
The Aces are going to win straight up, but they're 0-2 against the spread. Stay away from this game.
Final Mercury-Aces Prediction & Pick: Mercury +14.5
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