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It is a Top 25 SEC battle as Mississippi State faces Tennessee on Tuesday. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Mississippi State-Tennessee prediction and pick.
Mississippi State comes into the game at 15-3 on the year. They started the year 14-1 with wins over Pitt and Memphis, plus SEC foes South Carolina and Vanderbilt. The only loss has been to Butler. Still, they fell twice in a row after that, losing to Kentucky by five and then to Auburn by 22.
Last time out, Mississippi State rebounded. They faced Ole Miss and had an eight-point lead at the half. Mississippi State was up just three with less than 10 seconds left when Ole Miss tied the game. This forced overtime, where Mississippi State came away with an 84-81 victory.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is 16-2 on the year. They opened up the year 14-0 before facing Florida. In that game, they were dominated, as Tennessee fell 73-43 to Florida. Tennessee rebounded to beat Texas and Georgia before facing Vanderbilt last time out.
Vanderbilt held a six-point lead at the half, but Tennessee made a comeback attempt. Tennessee held Vanderbilt scoreless for the last 3:48 of the game but still fell 76-75.
Here are the Mississippi State-Tennessee College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Mississippi State-Tennessee Odds
Mississippi State: +8.5 (-112)
Moneyline: +300
Tennessee: -8.5 (-108)
Moneyline: -385
Over: 137.5 (-115)
Under: 137.5 (-105)
How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN2
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Mississippi State is ranked 22nd in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings. They sit 16th in offensive efficiency while sitting 45th in defensive efficiency. Mississippi State has been great on offense this year. They are 20th in the nation in points per game while sitting 38th in the nation in assists per game. Furthermore, they are 12th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Mississippi State is led by Josh Hubbard, who leads the team in scoring. He comes into the game averaging 16.6 points per game while also adding 2.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. He is joined in the backcourt by Cluadell Harris Jr. Harris is scoring 10.8 points per game with 3.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.1 steals per game this year.
Meanwhile, KeShawn Murphy leads the front court and the team in rebounding. Murphy has 7.7 rebounds per game this year. He is also averaging 10.3 points, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.1 blocks per game.
Murphy is joined by Cameron Matthews, who leads the team in assists and steals this year. He comes in with 3.8 assists and 2.7 steals per game. He also adds 8.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Finally, Michael Nwoko has been strong this year. He is averaging 6.8 points per game, while also having five rebounds and a block on the season.
Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread/Win
Tennessee is ranked sixth in KenPom's current rankings. They are 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting third in adjusted defensive efficiency this year.
Tennessee has also been great on defense this year. They are second in opponent points per game and opponent effective field-goal percentage. They have also been great against the three ball, sitting first in the nation in opponent three-point percentage.
Tennessee is led by Chaz Lanier, who leads the team in scoring this season. He comes in with 18.1 points per game while adding 3.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.1 steals per game.
He is joined in the back court by Zakai Zeigler. Zeigler leads the team in assists, coming in with 7.7 assists per game. He also has 12.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game. Finally, Jordan Gainey has 11.3 points per game, while he adds 3.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.2 steals per game this year.
In the front court, Igor Milicic Jr. leads the way. He leads the team in rebounding this year with 8.4 rebounds per game. Milicic also adds 10.7 points and 2.1 assists per game. He is joined in the front court by Felix Okpara. Okpara comes in with just 7.4 points per game but has 6.1 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game this year.
Final Mississippi State-Tennessee Prediction & Pick
Mississippi State has failed to cover in three-straight games but has covered in four of their last eight overall. Still, Tennessee has covered just twice in their last seven games.
With two teams as tightly matched as these two, extra possessions will make the difference. Mississippi State is 23rd in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, but Tenneessee is seventh. Mississippi State is 25th in turnovers per game while forcing the 48th most turnovers per game. Tennessee is 100th in turnovers per game while sitting 65th in forced turnovers.
Expect a tight game, so take the extra points in this one.
Final Mississippi State-Tennessee Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State +8.5 (-112)
