The Houston Astros take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Astros Mariners prediction and pick.
Jose Urquidy has a 4.09 ERA, but he is a better pitcher than that number indicates. Urquidy’s ERA is above four runs because he has suffered through several bad outings. However, whereas some pitchers are consistently mediocre and never dominate an opposing batting order, Urquidy paints a different picture. He will have a clunker in one outing and then go six innings and give up only one run in the next start. He has a low floor but a high ceiling.
However, the big problem for Urquidy, relative to this game, is that the Mariners have clearly been his nemesis this season. Urquidy has made three starts against Seattle. He has pitched 13 innings and given up 15 earned runs versus the Mariners this year. Notably, two of those starts – on May 28 and June 8 – came when the Mariners were not in the middle of a successful run. Those starts came after Seattle’s 11-6 start to the season, and before the 22-3 tear the Mariners unfurled, which has catapulted them into the thick of the playoff race.
Marco Gonzales has a 3.50 ERA. His last start before the All-Star break was a rocky one, but the Mariners scored enough runs to win anyway. Gonzales gave up five runs in six innings against the Rangers on July 14, but the Mariners rallied for a 6-5 win which kept their massive winning streak alive. If you’re worried about Gonzales based on that last start in Texas, you shouldn’t be. It was the first time he allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May 23. He has been relentlessly consistent this season, one meaningful part of a pitching staff which has been outstanding over the past month.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Mariners Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+128)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-154)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
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Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
The Astros head to Seattle knowing that the Mariners need to be taken seriously. They are aware of the new challenge the Mariners present to them in the American League West. Of course it’s still Houston’s division to lose, but if the Mariners sweep Houston this weekend, it would be fair to say that the division – long perceived as a runaway for the Astros – would become a real competition heading into the final week of July. The Astros have set the standard in this division, and given their championship credentials, they’re not going to let the Mariners become a factor. Houston looked like a team which needed the All-Star break. The Astros lost two of three to the A’s at home. They needed the days off. Equipped with a few days of rest, they should be ready to send a message in Seattle.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Mariners carry their 14-game winning streak into the first game and series after the All-Star break. While some people will legitimately say that the last thing Seattle needed was an interruption, the Mariners still did need time to decompress and restart for the push to the playoffs. This was an emotionally draining ride. The Mariners got to take a few days away from the ballpark, savor all their recent accomplishments, and refocus on the big goal. They will be sky-high for this game in front of a sellout crowd in Seattle, riding a wave of energy unlike any other in Major League Baseball. One other detail is worth noting: Houston had to play a doubleheader against the Yankees on Thursday, right after the All-Star break, and then fly to Seattle for this game. That’s a rough travel and game schedule. It certainly puts the Mariners in a good place.
Final Astros-Mariners Prediction & Pick
First games after the All-Star break (this is Seattle’s first game, though not Houston’s) invite a fresh measure of uncertainty, so while this is a huge series, and the desire to pick the right team in a big series is intense, you should stay away from this game. If you insist on making a pick, the Astros are the better choice if only because the Mariners have so much pressure on their backs and have not handled these moments well over the past 20 years.
Final Astros-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
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