The Milwaukee Brewers take on the New York Mets. Check out our MLB odds series for our Brewers Mets prediction and pick.
Corbin Burnes gets the assignment for the Brewers, while David Peterson makes this start for the Mets.
Corbin Burnes has a 2.48 ERA. He had a rough outing last week against the Phillies on June 9. He didn’t get crushed or give up a ton of runs, but he struggled with his location and had to labor through nearly every inning. His pitch count soared early in the game and he was done before the end of the fifth inning. He wasn’t sharp, and although a passed ball by catcher Victor Caratini on a strikeout of Kyle Schwarber led to a Philadelphia rally, Burnes wasn’t able to pitch well after that stroke of bad luck. He is expected to be the ace of this team, and that sometimes means wiping away teammates’ mistakes. He isn’t doing that right now. He has allowed at least three runs in three of his last five starts. He has given up eight runs in his last two starts, encompassing eight innings pitched.
David Peterson has a 3.00 ERA. Manager Buck Showalter has him on a very short leash, even though the Mets — with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom injured — need innings from their starters. Peterson was memorably yanked from a game against the Dodgers on June 4 in the middle of an at-bat. He threw one pitch which was hit hard but foul. With an 0-1 count, Showalter didn’t wait. He went to the mound and took the ball from Peterson, who was understandably not pleased. In Peterson’s next start against the Angels on June 10, he didn’t get out of the third inning.
Peterson gave up only one run in April (three starts). Then he allowed 10 runs in three May starts. He has given up five runs in two June starts, encompassing 6 1/3 innings pitched. His sample size of innings — 36 for the season — is still very small. He made only one start between April 23 and May 22. He is not an easy pitcher to evaluate right now.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Mets Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+120)
New York Mets: +1.5 (-144)
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
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Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
It’s very simple: Corbin Burnes is an elite pitcher, the kind of pitcher who is paid to win games like this and stop a downward turn for a baseball team in the middle of a very long season. There are roughly 100 games left in this season, but the Brewers have had an awful two-week stretch. Burnes is supposed to be the stopper, the guy who rises up and puts an end to a bad vibe in the dugout by silencing a very good team on the road. The Brewers have nothing else going for them in this game, but if Burnes pitches to his Cy Young potential, that’s all Milwaukee will need in order to win.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
The Brewers are in freefall right now, having lost 11 of their last 13 games. Their starting pitchers have a 5.59 ERA in this 13-game span. Opponents are hitting .320 against Milwaukee starters. While it is true that Corbin Burnes is the staff ace, he has not been especially sharp in recent weeks. The Mets just finished a grueling stretch of 22 games in which they played 16 of them in the Pacific and Mountain time zones. The Mets went 14-8 in those 22 games. They returned home on Tuesday and dominated the Brewers. They look like the best team in the National League right now, given the hitting slumps of several Los Angeles Dodgers.
Final Brewers-Mets Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game, given the presence of Burnes combined with Milwaukee’s terrible results over the past two weeks. Burnes lost his last start, so there’s no guarantee he’ll win, but he is obviously the much better pitcher in this matchup. It’s a game worth enjoying, not betting on. If you do pick, though, the over looks very tempting.
Final Brewers-Mets Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5
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