The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks today in the first matchup of a three-game weekend series at Truist Park. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Diamondbacks-Braves prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Atlanta got off to a strong start to the second half, beating the Los Angeles Angels by a combined score of 15-3 in its first two games out of the All-Star break, but the past few days haven't gone so well. Despite losing three of their last four games, though, the Braves are still in a solid position at 59-41. They lead the National League wild-card race and are only three games back of the New York Mets for the NL West lead.
The Diamondbacks aren't as much of a factor in the playoff push at 45-53, but at 6 1/2 games back of the final NL wild-card spot, their hopes are still alive. Arizona enters the series fresh off a sweep of the San Francisco Giants, with a 5-1 record since the break.
Here are the Diamondbacks-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Braves Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-111)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-108)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
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Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
While most factors are working against the Diamondbacks in this one, there is some positivity to be gleaned from the first meeting between the teams roughly two months back, when they took two out of three from the defending World Series champions. Arizona backers should also feel optimistic about the fact that Madison Bumgarner is on the mound.
Bumgarner had a rough past two years, posting ERAs of 6.48 and 4.76, respectively, but 2022 has been somewhat of a bounce-back campaign for the four-time all-star and 2014 World Series MVP, who enters today's game with a 3.71 ERA through 20 starts. At 32, he's no longer the pitcher that once set an MLB record for the lowest World Series ERA. However, he's still a force to be reckoned with at times, evidenced by his last outing. Bumgarner allowed two runs on four hits while striking out nine batters in eight innings last week in a win over the Washington Nationals.
It should be concerning that Kyle Wright is on the mound for Atlanta, given Wright has been a pleasant surprise in 2022, and the Diamondbacks have had plenty of struggles against right-handed pitching. That said, there are a few bright spots. Catcher Daulton Varsho has a team-high 40 RBIs against righties, while first baseman Christian Walker leads Arizona with 17 home runs. Outfielder David Peralta and infielder Ketel Marte are both above .800 in OPS against righties.
It also shouldn't be overlooked that the Diamondbacks are second in the National League in OPS this month.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
2022 has been a career year for Wright. Albeit in limited action, his lowest ERA as a starter heading into this season was 5.21 in eight games in 2020. He gave up seven earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in the big leagues last year, but that's now a distant memory. Wright has a 2.95 ERA and 3.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio amid his breakout season, with opponents hitting just .233 against him. He's currently a long shot in the NL Cy Young race with 100-to-1 odds. His numbers have spiked a bit lately, with a 3.61 ERA over his last seven starts. However, he's also 5-1 during this stretch. Bumgarner, meanwhile, has a 4.05 ERA in the same span.
As good as Wright has been, the Braves offense is an even greater strength in comparison to what Arizona has to offer. They rank in the top four in the National League in OPS, slugging percentage, RBIs, and doubles against right-handing pitching, with a league-high 118 home runs. The same holds true for their July totals, with the exception of doubles, with their 38 home runs this month leading the NL and ranking behind only the New York Yankees for all of baseball.
Final Diamondbacks-Braves Prediction & Pick
If it were just starting pitching factored into the equation, betting the under for the 8.5 run total at even money would be a solid play. However, with Arizona boasting the seventh-worst bullpen ERA in baseball, this might be a risky proposition — even if Atlanta has arguably the top relief staff in the National League. Considering that Bumgarner has only gone more than six innings four times in 20 starts this year, with 13 outings of five or fewer frames, the Diamondbacks bullpen is going to be a factor against a dangerous offense. Therefore, the Braves at -1.5 (-108) is an appealing option.
Final Diamondbacks-Braves Prediction & Pick: Braves -1.5 (-108)
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