The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks begin a four game series in the desert on Monday night as the Giants attempt to defend their spot atop the NL West. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants – Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 66-39 and is 31-22 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $2.221 on the moneyline.
Arizona currently stands at 33-73 and is only 20-32 in Chase Field. If you put $100 on every single Diamondbacks game so far this season, you’d be down $3,223 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Giants-Diamondbacks odds.
MLB Odds: Giants-Diamondbacks Odds
San Francisco Giants ML (-190)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+180)
Over 9.5 Runs (-105)
Under 9.5 Runs (-115)
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Why The Giants Could Win This Game
San Francisco has been particularly impressive of late, winning two series against some of the best teams in baseball. The Giants have continued to rely on two things to get them wins: a shutdown bullpen and the homer.
Let's focus on the bullpen first. The Giants bullpen has allowed multiple runs in only three of their last ten appearances. As a group, they have the third lowest ERA in the the league, have racked up the most saves, and allowed the least walks.
The Giants' strength in pitching won't be only be displayed out of the bullpen on Monday. San Francisco sends Anthony DeSclafani to the mound, who has pitched to a 10-5 record with a 3.10 ERA so far this season.
DeSclafani has carved up the Diamondbacks this season, allowing only three earned runs in 13.2 innings against them in two appearances. The righties only real weakness this season has been the Dodgers (22 earned runs in 21 innings pitched against them) and this D-backs offense is a far cry from the boys in blue.
Arizona's batters rank in the top ten for most strikeouts, and the bottom five for lowest OPS. It certainly doesn't help that the five D-backs who have 8+ plate appearances against Desclafani are all batting below .225 against him.
It's unlikely Arizona gets to DeSclafani, and it's very likely the Giants get to Diamondbacks starter Taylor Widener. Widener struggles in every area that the San Francisco offense thrives in.
Widener has allowed 16 walks and eight home runs in only 36.1 innings pitched this season. He hasn't pitched more than six innings all year, and has allowed multiple homers, multiple walks, or both in seven of his eight starts.
Newcomer Kris Bryant and the Giants' patient offense should pick Widener apart tonight, and don't expect the damage to stop against a Diamondbacks bullpen with the highest ERA in the league.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Win This Game
Despite Anthony DeSclafani's good looking ERA and win-loss total, the righty has been shaken up early in his last few starts.
In his last 14.2 innings, DeSclafani has allowed 10 runs and three homers. He has not pitched past the sixth inning in his last three starts, despite not topping 81 pitches in any of them.
Clearly, his stuff has been hittable of late, which should give Diamondbacks bettors a ray of hope.
Most of the Diamondbacks strongest hitters are lefties: Of the top five D-backs with the highest OPS who have hit in at least 60 games, three are left-handed and one is a switch hitter. DeSclafani has been much more vulnerable to lefties, giving up 25 runs in 58 innings pitched against lefties vs. 18 runs in 64 innings against righties. Left-handers also hit 26 points better against DeSclafani than their right-handed counterparts and have a better walk rate.
In short, this D-backs offense might be flawed, but they definitely have a shot at getting to a right-hander that has been unimpressive of late.
On the mound, Arizona will rely on Widener to do his best to get them through five innings within striking distance.
Despite the right-hander's subpar numbers so far, he's shown flashes of brilliance. Unlike DeSclafani, he's pitched well against the Dodgers and the Padres this year, two of the top OPS teams in the game.
In 10.1 innings against the NL powerhouses, Widener has only allowed one earned run. He did allow five walks in those appearances, but pitched out of trouble.
It will be a similar story Monday. The Giants will draw their walks and create traffic, but if Widener can keep the damage to about three runs the D-backs could actually steal one tonight.
Final Giants-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
This game should easily go to the Giants, but it's hard to trust DeSclafani after watching him get beat up in three straight games. Yes, this Diamondbacks offense is terrible, but it's more likely they get one or two runs off DeSclafani than get shut out. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them hang a crooked number on him at one point. The closest thing we have to a given in this game is the Giants ability to slug Taylor Widener. Honestly, they have a shot to come close to cashing the over by themselves tonight. For that reason, I'll play the total tonight and count on the Giants and D-backs to both produce runs.
FINAL GIANTS-DIAMONDBACKS PREDICTION: OVER 9.5 RUNS (-105)
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