The Miami Marlins take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Marlins Dodgers prediction and pick.
Jesus Luzardo goes to the mound for the Marlins, while Tyler Anderson gets the call for the Dodgers.
Jesus Luzardo has pitched only three times since May 10. He rejoined the Miami rotation at the start of August. In his three starts this month, he has been solid, pitching to a 3.18 ERA. He gave up just two runs in 12 innings across two starts against the Reds and Cubs. He then went up against the Braves in his most recent outing on Aug. 13 and allowed four runs in five innings. One can reasonably conclude that Luzardo did well against mediocre hitters and was mediocre against good hitters. In the bigger picture, though, 17 innings — the amount of innings Luzardo has pitched since his return — is a very small sample size.
Tyler Anderson would be receiving a lot more publicity if Tony Gonsolin had not been such a huge surprise this season for the Dodgers. Gonsolin's emergence has enabled the team to thrive while Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw have been hurt (Buehler for the rest of the season). Because Gonsolin has flirted with the Cy Young Award (Sandy Alcantara is the clear favorite, but if he falters over the next six weeks, Gonsolin — the likely second-place finisher — has an outside chance of catching him), he has received a lot more buzz than Anderson.
Yet, the Dodgers wouldn't be running away with the N.L. West if Anderson hadn't dazzled this year. Anderson's 2.81 ERA gives Los Angeles a third starter with a sub-three-run ERA. Anderson had a rough patch in the second half of June, but other than that four-start sequence, he has been extremely reliable. In July and August, he has made a combined total of eight starts. Only one of those eight starts has not been a quality start (at least six innings pitched, no more than three runs allowed). Anderson is regularly pitching six innings and regularly giving up fewer than three runs per start. Of his last eight starts, he has allowed a maximum of one run in five of them. The Dodgers could not have asked for more from a back-end rotation starter.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Marlins-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Dodgers Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (+102)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-122)
Over: 8 (-112)
Under: 8 (-108)
Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread
Jesus Luzardo has been solid in his recent starts. He had a lot of time off in which to study the game and polish his technique. The early results have been encouraging. The Dodgers are returning from a long Midwest road trip and might be a little mentally tired. Also, before you assume the Dodgers are going to win, remember that Los Angeles has lost home series this year to the Pirates (a sweep) and the Nationals (two out of three). The Dodgers can let down their guard.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
After a poor offensive showing on Thursday in a 5-3 loss to the Brewers, the Dodgers should bounce back against a bad Miami team which doesn't score many runs. The Dodgers faced Corbin Burnes on Thursday. Jesus Luzardo should be easier to hit. Also, Tyler Anderson is rock-solid. Don't expect him to give up many runs to the Marlins. If the Dodgers get a normal Anderson start, they should have more than enough offense to win the game by two or more runs.
Final Marlins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
The Dodgers might struggle on offense, but Anderson will shut down the Marlins. The under is worth a look, but the best play is to stick with the Dodgers on the run line.
Final Marlins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
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