The Texas Rangers take on the New York Mets. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rangers Mets prediction and pick.
Glenn Otto takes the bump for the Rangers, while Chris Bassitt gets the start for the Mets.
Glenn Otto has a 5.31 ERA. That will naturally elicit the belief that Otto is a mediocre pitcher, and to be honest, that's not an unreasonable view. However, the numbers don't paint a clean or direct portrait of a mediocre pitcher. Otto generally pitches five innings per start, give or take an inning. Because he doesn't pitch 6 2/3 innings or seven innings per start, any time he gives up a large number of runs will blow up his ERA to a comparatively greater degree, because he doesn't log as many innings. Yet, for the most part, if you look at Otto's performances this season, he has given up more than two runs in only two of his nine starts. In his two atrocious starts, he has given up 14 runs. That's more than half of the 26 total runs he has allowed this season, in 42 1/3 innings pitched. So, Otto might indeed be an ordinary, not-that-great pitcher, but if you take away his two terrible appearances this year, he has pitched at a far higher level than the surface numbers would tell you. Take note of that.
Chris Bassitt has a 4.01 ERA. It is notable that he had a 2.25 ERA in April but has posted a 4.63 ERA for the month of May and a 4.70 ERA for the month of June. However, within those larger numbers and trends, it's important to note that Bassitt has actually been good in his last three starts, giving up only six runs in his last 21 1/3 innings. The part of the season which really hurt his numbers was a five-start sequence from May 19 through June 8 in which he allowed 24 runs in 26 innings. The 24 runs represent a majority of his 41 runs allowed this season. If you look at the last three starts, it's a very different story.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rangers-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rangers-Mets Odds
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-118)
New York Mets: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
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Why The Rangers Could Cover the Spread
The Rangers get solid pitching from their starters in most games, Otto being a very good example. Otto limited the New York Yankees to just two runs the last time he pitched in New York in early May. If he can contain the Yankees, he can certainly contain the Mets as well. Given that New York is struggling, having lost three straight games, it's entirely reasonable to think Otto can outpitch Bassitt and lead Texas to victory.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
After losing three straight games, the Mets are going to come out on fire in this game. They aren't facing Justin Verlander of the Astros or Gerrit Cole of the Yankees. They're facing Glenn Otto and the Rangers. Everything should snap back into place for the Mets here.
Final Rangers-Mets Prediction & Pick
If losing three straight games for the first time all season doesn't fire up the Mets here, something will be wrong. This is a very solid pitck to make: New York on the run line.
Final Rangers-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5
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