The Texas Rangers take on the Minnesota Twins. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rangers Twins prediction and pick.
Martin Perez goes to the bump for the Rangers, while Dylan Bundy gets the ball for the Twins.
Martin Perez has a 2.79 ERA. He has given the Rangers a lot of good years, and he has been everything the team could have hoped for this season. He has made 24 starts, and if you look at the numbers closely, you'll see that Perez has been better than average in 18 of the 24 starts. He has allowed more than three earned runs only four times in 2022. On two occasions, he allowed three earned runs without pitching past the fifth inning. Those are his six clunkers. His other 18 starts have met or exceeded the standards for what a pitcher should generally do to help his team win a game.
The proof of Perez's quality and value to the Rangers is found in the fact that while Texas is 12 games under .500 entering this game in Minnesota, the Rangers are 10 games over .500 in Perez's 24 starts: 17-7. Three of the seven losses came in games in which Perez allowed only one run. A fourth loss came in a game in which he allowed two runs. Perez could conceivably be 21-3 if he had more run support.
Dylan Bundy has a 4.76 ERA. He posted a 4.62 ERA in June and a 5.92 ERA in July, as the Twins regressed and failed to create distance between themselves and the Cleveland Guardians. In August, Cleveland has taken over the division lead in the American League Central. The Twins need their pitching staff to find a higher level of performance. Bundy reached that higher level in his most recent start. He pitched five scoreless innings against the Angels on Aug. 13. Yet, in a plot twist which has marked the Twins' fortunes of late, Minnesota blew a 3-0 lead and lost to the Halos in 11. Nevertheless, if that game can mark the level of performance Bundy retains for the rest of the season, the Twins will take it. This is a very important start. Bundy needs to display higher-tier consistency and set a tone for the rest of the rotation.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rangers-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rangers-Twins Odds
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-162)
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+134)
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
Why The Rangers Could Cover the Spread
Martin Perez is a better pitcher than Dylan Bundy. Minnesota has been drifting this season, failing to stack together wins on a consistent basis. The Twins were 47-37 on July 5 and are 14-18 in the 32 games since then. The Twins are playing in a very weak division and yet have fallen out of first place in the American League Central. Failure to win this division would rate as a massive disappointment. It's hard to place too much trust in the Twins, even against a team as frustrating and underachieving as the Rangers. One big swing from Corey Seager could instantly change this game in Texas's favor.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Rangers fired their manager and their general manager this past week. Does that tell you anything about how brutal this season has been for Texas? The team invested large sums of money in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Only one of the two has delivered the goods, but beyond that, the pitching staff has been thin and the offense has been utterly unreliable. You're likely to see a dramatic reworking of the roster for 2023. The Twins, for all their flaws, aren't nearly as bad as Texas.
Final Rangers-Twins Prediction & Pick
The Rangers' record in games started by Martin Perez is a great reason to pick them. The Twins' urgency in the middle of a playoff push is a great reason to pick them against a generally inferior opponent. This rates as a stay-away game. If you must pick, take the Rangers plus the run and a half.
Final Rangers-Twins Prediction & Pick: Rangers +1.5
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