The Boston Red Sox will take a trip down south to battle the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game of their three-game series. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick.

The Red Sox will be looking to bounce back after a rare double-digit defeat to the Toronto Blue Jays in their last outing. However, the loss did not affect their place in the standings, as they remain atop the American League East with a 62-41 record. 

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Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays are 61-42 this season and find themselves in just 1.5 games. They will be looking to carry over their dominating performance against the New York Yankees, where they won 14-0 and try to steal the number one position by the time this series is all said and done. 

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Red Sox-Rays odds.

MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds

Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-154)

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+134)

Over 9 Runs (-110)

Under 9 Runs (-110)

Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread

The Red Sox are 54-50 against the run line this season. However, when Alex Cora and his side are on the road, they cover 59.2% of the time.

Boston plans to give Martin Perez his 21st  start of the season. The left-hander is currently 7-6 on the year and has an ERA of 4.18. He gave up three earned runs and six hits through six innings in his last mound appearance.


The Boston Red Sox have been excellent at-bat this season. As a team, they are fourth in the majors in batting average, hitting .256. They are also second in the league in hits with 899 and slugging a collective .441.

Individually, Rafael Devers has had the biggest bat for the Red Sox this season. He leads the team with 27 home runs and 82 RBIs. He also has accumulated a .944 On-Base + Slugging rating (OPS) this season.

The Red Sox will need a solid performance from Perez and for the batting lineup to continue their consistency to move another game ahead in the AL East.

Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread

The Rays are one of the better teams against the run line this season with a 57-46 record. However, when playing in their home park, Tropicana Field, they only cover 49% of the time.

Tampa Bay plans to start Josh Fleming on the mound. The lefty is 7-5 on the year and has a 4.07 ERA. In his last time out, the second-year pitcher threw four innings, surrendering three earned runs while giving up six hits.

The Rays have never been worried about trying to let one fly when up at-bat. They currently lead the MLB in strikeouts with 1035. However, when things go right, they are nearly unstoppable to beat, as we saw in their previous game against the Yankees, where they put together a 10-run inning.

Individually, Brandon Lowe has been the most dynamic batter for the Rays this season. He leads the team with 22 home runs and ranks second in RBIs with 52. The Rays are also getting great early production from their newest signing, Nelson Cruz. The 41-year-old has a batting average of .288 and has two home runs in his first five games with the team.

If Fleming can get off to a strong start and the rest of the Rays connect at-bat, they will be able to take game one of the series and move within just 0.5 games for first place in the AL East.

Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick

If both teams can maintain the level of baseball they have shown up to this point, we will more than likely see this matchup in October, so expect a competitive series.

However, according to winnersandwhiners.com, the Red Sox are 25-8 in their last 33 during game 1 of a series and are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

That said, it is hard to pick against the Rays after seeing what they did against the Yankees on Thursday night, but look for the Red Sox to come out with high energy after their embarrassing defeat and try to take advantage of a younger pitcher who has given up ten earned runs in his last two starts. I would lean a Boston Moneyline but feel more confident taking them to win the first five innings.

FINAL RED SOX-RAYS PREDICTION & PICK: Boston Red Sox First Five Innings ML (+105)