The Cincinnati Reds, fourth place in the NL Central, will square off with the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers in a three-game series this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Reds-Brewers prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Cincinnati, after their second round of a fire sale, are 42-62, fourth place in the division, and a long way away from the playoffs. After selling two hitters and star pitcher Luis Castillo, more young players are getting opportunities this season.
Milwaukee, fresh off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates, are 57-48, tied for the lead in the NL Central. The Brewers are looking forward to returning home, where they have a 26-20 record, looking to put some distance between them and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Here are the Reds-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Brewers Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-106)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (-113)
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
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Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
Cincinnati, even after losing Tyler Naquin and Brandon Drury, has some bright spots in their lineup. Joey Votto, the incumbent first baseman, has hit 10 home runs this season and is on fire after a brutal start to the season. Votto has slashed .348/.483/.609 in his last seven games. Five of Votto's 10 home runs have come in the last 30 games. Mike Moustakas, who has battled inconsistency this season, is hitting just .202 with six home runs this season. Kyle Farmer leads the team with 50 RBIs and has added 20 doubles. Cincinnati has only hit 98 home runs this season, tied for 20th in the league.
Tonight's starting is Robert Dugger, who is making his first start of the season. Dugger has thrown just 12 innings this season in three appearances, one with Tampa Bay and two with Cincinnati. Dugger has experience starting, with 12 big-league starts under his belt. He has decent stuff, highlighted by his 17 strikeouts in 12 innings this season. Unfortunately, Cincinnati's bullpen is the worst in baseball by a wide margin, with a 5.13 ERA. Alexis Diaz has been the lone bright spot in the bullpen, with a dominant 2.04 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 39.2 innings. Opposing batters have hit just .126 against Diaz.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee is a very good club, but are going through a tough stretch, losing four games in a row. There is no shortage of power for this team, with their 145 home runs being the fourth most in baseball. Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez pace the team in that category, both have slugged 21. Hunter Renfroe, added from the Red Sox in the offseason, has mashed 19 home runs. An interesting aspect of this offense is their speed, as Christian Yelich (15), Kolten Wong (11), and Jace Peterson (10) all have double-digit totals. Milwaukee's 65 steals as a team rank tenth in the league.
Eric Lauer has parlayed his 2021 career year into another strong campaign in 2022. Lauer is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA in his 19 starts this season. Batters have hit under .200 against both Lauer's fastball and his slider, which he combines to throw over 66% of the time. Lauer is even better at home, with a 2.85 ERA in his eight home starts. In his lone start against Cincinnati this season, Lauer was victorious despite surrendering four runs in 6.1 innings. After a shaky series in Pittsburgh, Milwaukee's bullpen ERA ranks 18th in baseball with a 3.99 ERA in 374 innings. Star closer Josh Hader no longer wears this uniform, but Devin Williams, with a 1.77 ERA and 66 strikeouts in 40.2 innings, is a more than capable replacement. Newly acquired Taylor Rogers can also slide into the closer role, as he owns 78 career saves.
Final Reds-Brewers Prediction & Pick
This is a pretty lopsided matchup.
Final Reds-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-113), over 8.5 (-118)
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