MLB odds: Reds vs. Cubs prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/28/2021
This series between division rivals has been a good one so far. The Cubs managed to take the first game by one run, followed by the Reds rebounding quickly to take the second game easily. Chicago’s playoff hopes are nonexistent, as everyone knows the front office will be making a flurry of trades before the deadline is done. The Reds are in a similar position to the Cubs, trailing first place in the NL Central by seven games. Cincinnati hasn’t been very active at the deadline, but that could change in the coming days.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds for Wednesday night’s game.
MLB Odds: Reds-Cubs Odds
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Cincinnati Reds ML (-108)
Chicago Cubs ML (-102)
Over 10 runs (-105)
Under 10 runs (-115)
Why The Reds Could Win
When the Reds win, it’s typically because of how good their offense is. Wednesday’s game should be a little bit different, as the Reds get to send starting pitcher Tyler Mahle to the mound for the matchup.
Mahle has been a welcome surprise for the Reds this season. He has posted a 3.92 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over this season. Mahle has also had good success against the Cubs, allowing only one run over his last 10 innings of work against them. Chicago is a pretty bad offensive team, so another good performance from Mahle should be in the books.
While the Cubs have struggled at the plate throughout the entire season, the Reds have one of the better offenses in MLB. Cincinnati ranks inside the top 10 in the league in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS. They may be missing star outfielder Nick Castellanos, but this lineup still has more than enough ability to hit off of anyone.
Why The Cubs Could Win
Chicago doesn’t have the offensive numbers that Cincinnati does, but starting pitcher Zach Davies may be able to level the playing field against the Reds. Davies currently owns a 4.30 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, both decent numbers. He has already faced Cincinnati twice this season, allowing a total of two runs over nine innings of work. Davies has shown he can hang with this offense, so it’s very possible he does it again on Wednesday night.
Tyler Mahle’s season-long numbers are pretty good, but his stats from his last seven starts have been less inspiring. Over that span, Mahle owns a 4.58 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in that span, two numbers that show he’s very hittable. The Cubs are also a much better offensive team when playing in Wrigley Field, seeing their batting average jump from .216 on the road to .239 at home. Chicago’s offense has a chance to break a cold streak against a pitcher who’s in a slump of his own.
Final Reds-Cubs Prediction & Pick
There’s no reason these teams should have even odds in this matchup. The Reds have the pitching advantage and the better lineup by a long shot. With everything going Cincinnati’s way, it’s surprising to see the their odds at only -108. Lock in the Reds and don’t look back.
FINAL PICK: Cincinnati Reds ML (-108)