The Kansas City Royals take on the Chicago White Sox. Check out our MLB odds series for our Royals White Sox prediction and pick.
Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals, while Lucas Giolito goes to the hill for the White Sox.
Brad Keller was a late scratch for Monday's game against the White Sox. Daniel Lynch replaced him and stranded a bunch of runners to beat the Sox, 2-1.
We wrote this about Keller before Monday's game. Keep this in mind as you consider your play for Tuesday's contest in Chicago:
“Brad Keller has a 4.18 ERA. He started the season well with a 2.19 ERA in April. Then he regressed. In May and June, his ERA was over 5.15. In July, he bounced back with a 3.77 ERA for that particular month. However, two of his strong starts from July were against the Detroit Tigers, who have one of the worst offenses in baseball and have been consistently bad the whole year. Keller's two starts against the Tigers in July encompassed 13 innings pitched. Keller gave up a total of just one earned run in those two games. He allowed only eight hits and three walks to the Tigers. Does it matter that Keller feasted on weaker teams, or is it important that Keller bounced back after a rough two-month stretch in May and June? That is the big question you have to think about going into this game.”
Lucas Giolito has a 5.14 ERA. The good news for Giolito is that his July ERA was 2.67 runs lower than it was in June. The bad news is that his June ERA was 7.67. Giolito occasionally delivers a strong start. In July, he had two starts in which he pitched at least six innings and gave up only one run. The problem is that those starts are occasional. He gets hammered in some of his other starts and is relatively ordinary in other starts. His overall portfolio of starts is far too mixed, with some good, some bad, and a lot of average outings. That's not what the White Sox hoped or expected, and it's part of why they are one of the most disappointing teams in baseball this year.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Royals-White Sox MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Royals-White Sox Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-146)
Chicago White Sox: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 8.5 (-104)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
Why The Royals Could Cover the Spread
Lucas Giolito is not the ace he once was for the White Sox; anything but. He has a 10.07 ERA and five home runs allowed in his last four home starts for the Sox this season. Salvador Perez, who is red-hot since returning from injury, can mash baseballs against Giolito.
The White Sox are doing a lot of remarkable things this year, none of them good. They are 20-22 against the A.L. Central, which is the worst division in baseball. On Monday against the Royals, they hit their first sacrifice fly since June 26. That's right: They went over a full month without hitting a sacrifice fly. In Monday's loss, they collected double-digit hits and scored only one run. They remain improbably, stubbornly mediocre despite having elite talent in a bad division. The Royals beat them Monday; they can beat them on Tuesday.
Why The White Sox Could Cover the Spread
After losing on Monday and stranding a pile of runners in scoring position — wasting a large number of hits — the White Sox have to be steaming mad. This team simply has way too much natural ability to continue to perform so poorly on offense. A breakout game is just around the corner. That's how the White Sox can cover the spread. Lucas Giolito doesn't have to be spectacular; he just needs to be relatively decent against a light-hitting Royals team (with the exception of Salvador Perez).
Final Royals-White Sox Prediction & Pick
If you want to trust the White Sox, you're taking an unnecessary risk. Just stay away here. If you insist on making a pick, you might as well see if Chicago can score big and bust out for once.
Final Royals-White Sox Prediction & Pick: White Sox -1.5
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