The New York Yankees take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Yankees Mariners prediction and pick.
Jameson Taillon goes to the bump for the Yankees, while Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners.
Jameson Taillon has a 3.96 ERA. That ERA was 2.30 on June 2. It has steadily risen since then. The main reason: Taillon is getting crushed by the home run. Taillon was keeping the ball in the park in the first two and a half months of the season. He allowed six home runs in his first 13 starts of the season. He gave up just one home run in the month of May, and in a seven-start sequence which stretched from late April through early June.
Last week, the Mariners roughed up Taillon for six runs in 4 2/3 innings. They hit two home runs against Taillon, who also allowed four walks. The Yankees walked eight St. Louis Cardinal hitters in a 12-9 Sunday loss. Yankee pitching has fallen off the pace, a key reason New York has dropped five games in a row. Taillon has a lot of work to do to repair what has become broken.
Logan Gilbert has a 3.09 ERA. For three straight months, his ERA was roughly 3.35. He posted a 3.44 ERA in May, 3.28 in June, 3.18 in July. His level of performance over the course of whole months — clusters of five or six starts — remained notably stable and steady. Gilbert wasn't spectacular, but he was good. Three months with that level of pitching is something every MLB team will take from a pitcher who is not the ace of the staff.
Last week, though, Gilbert gave up three homers against the Yankees, allowing six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Does that performance mean that Gilbert is about to regress and lose the stability he displayed over the previous three months, or should it be viewed as an aberration? That's the question you need to answer if you insist on making a pick in this game.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Yankees-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Mariners Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+142)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-176)
Over: 8 (-102)
Under: 8 (-120)
Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
The Yankees have lost five games in a row. They're not going to lose six in a row. This team looks bored, and its pitching staff has also gone through its worst patch of the 2022 season. One would be inclined to think that the Yankees are going to reverse course at some point. They hammered Logan Gilbert last week. If they come to the ballpark motivated and hungry, they're probably going to pound the Mariners, who beat them twice last week in Yankee Stadium.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Yankees look horrible. They're playing their worst baseball of the season. Logan Gilbert is a good pitcher who had a bad day at the office last week against the Yankees. He is likely to be better in this game. Can one say the same for Jameson Taillon? He has been below average over the past month, and teams including the Mariners have tagged him for home runs. The Mariners looked a little flat over the weekend against the Angels. They're not going to be mentally flat against the Yankees. They'll rough up Taillon and will get a solid game from Gilbert.
Final Yankees-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The Yankees are playing poorly but are going to play better baseball at some point, but Taillon is having a tough time and Gilbert is pitching better than he is. What does that all mean? Stay away from this game. If you insist on a pick, the Mariners probably look like the better choice.
Final Yankees-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners +1.5