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MLB Odds: Yankees vs. Orioles prediction, odds and pick – 7/22/2022

The New York Yankees are set to face the Baltimore Orioles this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Yankees-Orioles prediction and pick we have laid out below.

The New York Yankees have been baseball’s best team in 2022, despite losing a doubleheader to the hated Houston Astros yesterday. New York is sporting a 64-30 record and owns a commanding 12-game lead in the AL East.

The Baltimore Orioles, seemingly stuck in a rebuild, have surprised many this season, with a 46-46 record. Baltimore’s even record cements the AL East as the only division with all teams at .500 or above.

Here are the Yankees-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel

MLB Odds: Yankees-Orioles Odds

New York Yankees: -1.5 (-104)

Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-115)

Over: 8.5 (-122)

Under: 8.5 (+100)

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Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread

In the simplest of terms, the New York Yankees are the best team in baseball. Maybe even the best baseball team ever. Certainly the best baseball team since their own 1998 season. Tonight, Jameson Taillon, MLB’s leader in win percentage, is tasked with righting the ship after a doubleheader sweep in Houston. Taillon is 10-2 with a 3.86 ERA, right in line with his career 3.82 mark. Rather than overpowering opponents, Taillon is adept at limiting free passes, leading all of baseball with a 2.9 % walk rate. The Yankees are third in baseball with a 3.13 team ERA, striking out 861 opponents in 846.2 innings. This is a fearsome pitching staff that is the envy of most of the league.

At the plate, the Yankees rely on Herculean power up and down the lineup. Besides the obvious sluggers like Aaron Judge (34 home runs) and Giancarlo Stanton (24 home runs), the Yankees have demolished baseballs this season, leading MLB with 160. The resurgent Matt Carpenter has bashed 13 home runs in just 86 at-bats, ranking fifth on the squad. This lineup will wear down opposing pitching staffs, seeing just over four pitches per plate appearance. When they do swing, the Yankees do considerably more damage than the rest of the league, with 43.4% of their batted balls classified as hard hit. This is a lethal lineup with no real soft-landing for a pitching staff.

Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread

The Baltimore Orioles are one of the feel-good stories of 2022. On the heels of years of downright dreadful baseball, the Orioles ended the first half at an even 46-46, including an 8-2 record in their last 10. Baltimore is strong at Camden Yards, with a 25-17 record in their home park. Friday night, ace Tyler Wells will toe the rubber, which is comforting for Orioles fans everywhere. Wells is sporting a 3.38 ERA in 85.1 innings after spending his 2021 rookie season in a full-time bullpen role. In three starts against the Yankees in 2022, Wells has allowed four runs in 14 innings. Behind Wells, Baltimore’s bullpen has been lights out, with six relievers owning an ERA under 2.50. Closer Jorge Lopez has saved 17 games with a 1.62 ERA.

The batter’s box has been a different story for Baltimore, with the Orioles ranking 25th in team batting average, and 16th in home runs. Despite those low totals, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays have combined to hit .270 with 26 home runs. This lineup is rather thin, with only four players hitting double-digit home runs. One of the biggest holes in the lineup is making contact, as Baltimore has struck out 813 times, the sixth most in the league. The best hope for Baltimore is to slug an early home run or two, something Taillon (14 home runs allowed) is susceptible to, and rely on their pitching staff to shut down a potent lineup.

Final Yankees-Orioles Prediction & Pick

Even following a rough day in Houston, it is hard to bet against the Yankees. New York’s lineup is simply too strong to be counted out in this one.

Final Yankees-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+100), over 8.5 (-122)