The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox meet in the first postseason game of the year on Tuesday evening. After fighting off the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners to clinch their playoff spots, one of these iconic franchises will be sent home in a must-watch rivalry game. Let’s continue our MLB odds series and make a Yankees-Red Sox prediction and pick based on Yankees Red Sox odds as real October baseball begins.
Boston finished the regular season with a record of 92-70 and is 49-32 at home. If you put $100 on every single Red Sox regular season game, you’d be up $713 on the moneyline.
New York closed the season with a record of 92-70 and is 46-35 away from Yankee Stadium. If you put $100 on every single Yankees regular season game, you’d be down $172 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Yankees-Red Sox odds.
MLB AL Wild Card: Yankees-Red Sox Odds
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New York Yankees ML (-120)
Boston Red Sox ML (+110)
Over 8.5 Runs (-105)
Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
Why The Yankees Could Win This Game
With their season on the line, the Yankees will send their ace and potential 2021 Cy Young winner to the mound in Gerrit Cole.
Cole has had an up and down ride this season, but finished with some eye-popping stats: Through 181.1 innings. he's posted 243 strikeouts, only 41 walks, and a 2.92 FIP.
What's most important for Cole and the Yankees right now is how he performs against the Red Sox. In four appearances against the Bronx Bombers division rival this year, Cole produced three quality outings. He went at least five innings and allowed no more than three earned runs in three of his four starts against the Sox.
The righty has seen some success against Boston thanks to his domination of their top bats. Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, and Hunter Renfroe have combined for exactly 100 at-bats against Cole. They have 20 hits and 37 strikeouts against the Yankees ace for a batting average of .200.
The Red Sox recently scored only 10 runs in a series against the Baltimore Orioles, and only had five runs for the first 17 innings of their last series against a poor Nationals pitching staff. A few big swings from Devers and Alex Verdugo really bailed out the Sox this weekend, and it's unlikely those will come against Gerrit Cole and a bullpen with the fourth lowest ERA and WHIP in the league.
In the batters box, the Yankees get another crack at Nathan Eovaldi, who they've already seen a whopping six times this year. Like Cole, Eovaldi has had mixed results against his teams biggest rival. But unlike Cole, Eovaldi's latest matchup against the Yanks was a disaster.
In his second to last start of the season, the Yankees shelled Eovaldi for seven earned runs in just 2.2 innings. The Red Sox loss meant that New York is now 4-2 against the Red Sox when Eovaldi starts. The Yankees have won four straight against the Sox ace going into the Wild Card matchup.
Eovaldi has only faced the new look Yankees (with Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo in the lineup) twice this year. In his four starts against New York without the dangerous lefties, he allowed two homers over 26.1 innings. In his two starts against them, he's allowed three homers over 7.2 innings.
This Yankees lineup has the depth and strength to wear down Eovaldi and grind out at-bats until he makes a mistake. It would be extremely surprising to see him navigate the lineup unscathed multiple times throughout the order. Look for the Yankees to do some damage early on Tuesday.
Why The Red Sox Could Win This Game
It was a bumpy September for Boston, but they closed the season on a high note with a sweep of the Washington Nationals to enter the Wild Card in style.
Perhaps the most important part of their last win was the 13 hits that came from Red Sox players to get the job done. After slumbering for pretty much three entire series, the Boston bats put together seven earned runs, the most of any game since September 22nd.
This is a good sign for the Sox, who will need the momentum in their matchup with Gerrit Cole. For all his talent, Cole has a few holes in his game. One of the weaknesses is that when Cole is hit, he's hit hard.
In six of his 30 starts this season, he's given up five or more earned runs. The Yankees lost all six of those starts. That means that in 20% of his outings he is shelled out of the game, and that's already happened once this season in Boston.
Secondly, these terrible outings come when Cole's breaking pitches come out flat, and they get pounded out of the stadium or in to gaps. The Yankees have lost 14 games in which Cole has started. He's given up at least one homer in 12 of those, and multiple homers in five. Comparatively, the Yankees have won 16 Cole starts this season. He's only given up a homer in four of those wins.
This points to the fact that when Cole's on, he's pretty much unbeatable. But those nights where he's not as sharp leaves him open for a shelling by teams with power bats in their lineup, and the Red Sox certainly qualify. Boston ranks second in slugging percentage and 10th in total home runs in the league.
Nathan Eovaldi will counter Cole tonight, and he'll hope to make up for his last nightmare outing against the Yankees.
Eovaldi is the perfect pitcher to counter this powerful Yankees lineup: He's got strikeout stuff to rack up K's against a team that struck out the sixth most times in the league, he limits his walks, and most importantly, he keeps the ball in the yard.
In 182.1 innings this year, Eovaldi has only allowed a miniscule 15 home runs. Of the 32 starts he's made, the righty has allowed multiple home runs in only three outings. This is key to beating the Yankees, who hit the sixth most home runs in the regular season and are loaded top to bottom with power threats.
Despite his last outing, Eovaldi has proven he can dominate New York. Before his last outing, Eovaldi pitched 31.1 innings in five starts against the Yankees this season. He only allowed seven earned runs in the span, striking out 35 and giving up only two homers.
The recipe for beating the Yankees is there for Eovaldi, and he's shown us he can do it. We'll just have to see if his execution is up to par as he makes the second biggest appearance of his career in the postseason.
Final Yankees-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
Even with the Fenway faithful doing their best to urge their team to a win, the Yankees have slight advantages in nearly every category coming in to this game. Both pitchers have been shaky of late, but Gerrit Cole is an elite pitcher who any manager would be comfortable handing the ball to in this situation. The Red Sox bullpen looked especially worrisome in Washington, while the Yankees ‘pen finished the season by throwing 15.1 innings against a great Rays offense and only allowing four earned runs. At the plate, the Red Sox inspired little confidence for about 80% of their last series, but the Yankees are coming in cold as well. In the end, this comes down to who you trust more on the mound, and the answer to that question should be Cole. Take the Yankees as slight favorites to come out victorious in Boston.
FINAL YANKEES-RED SOX PREDICTION: NEW YORK YANKEES ML (-120)
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