The Cincinnati Reds were just swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers to fall 4.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot. While that does not mean their season is over, it may be time to look ahead to the offseason. The Reds should be active in the trade market this offseason, just like they were last year, picking up Gavin Lux. But after a disappointing campaign for the former Dodger, Lux is one player who should be on his way out.
The Reds picked up Lux for their 14th prospect, Mike Sirota, and a competitive balance pick. That was a high price to pay for Lux, but they believed he would be an improvement on Jonathan India. He has been better than India this year, but his defense has been lackluster at best. According to Baseball Savant, Lux has a -7 Outs Above Average, the worst mark of his career. That has taken his bWAR down to -0.1 despite his .732 OPS.
Lux has one year of team control left before hitting free agency in 2027. The Reds would be better off trading him, picking up another prospect, and using his roster spot and salary to improve in free agency. Cincinnati just traded for Ke'Bryan Hayes, who is due $42 million for the rest of the decade. A long-term deal seems unlikely for Lux, so picking up something could be worth the trade.
The Reds leaned into defense with the Hayes trade, and if that is Terry Francona's plan, Lux has to go. They have tried him at many positions this year, none of them with any success. And Miguel Andujar has come in and been a better designated hitter than the World Series champ.
The Reds should make this trade to take advantage of Elly De La Cruz's prime.
The Reds can find their advantage on defense
Many of the Reds' core pieces are solid defenders, with Elly De La Cruz being a notable exception on the analytic front. While the offense makes up for it with De La Cruz, that has not been the case for Lux. They cannot go another season with this situation playing out, especially given who is waiting in the wings.
The Reds' top prospect is Sal Stewart, a third baseman who is crushing baseballs for the AAA Louisville Bats. In 35 games, he has 10 homers and 30 RBI, good enough for a 1.055 OPS. But Stewart has been blocked defensively by Hayes, who is one of the best third-base gloves in the league. Freeing up the flex spot in their lineup that Lux takes opens up the door for Stewart.
Part of the Reds' struggles this year has been courtesy of Matt McLain. After an excellent rookie season, .864 OPS and 3.2 bWAR, he missed all of the 2024 campaign. The second baseman has not been himself this year, with a .627 OPS and -0.5 bWAR. Stewart has also played second base in the minors, so he can be a utility glove and elite bat for the Reds next season.
Then, with the money they would save by not going to arbitration with Lux, the Reds could bolster their bullpen or add a defensive outfielder. Harrison Bader was a disaster in his first stint with the Reds in 2023, but he would be the perfect fit in Cincinnati if his mutual option is declined in Philadelphia. If they don't want to go that direction, Cedric Mullins could be an interesting fit. His defense has taken a step back, but he could be a solid bat for Cincy.
The Reds have a path to being a National League playoff squad in 2026, especially if Kyle Tucker leaves for the American League. They have to trade Gavin Lux to make it happen, however, as it opens up opportunities for free agents and their top prospect.
