The Cincinnati Reds enter Tuesday's action 2.5 games out of the final National League Wild Card spot. They are chasing the New York Mets, who have faltered in the summer due to poor starting pitching. The good news for the Reds is that Hunter Greene leads an elite pitching staff that can throw them to victory. All Cincy needs now is a hot September, and they can be in the postseason.
The Reds have not made the playoffs since the 2020 expanded postseason, with 2013 as their most recent appearance before that. On top of that, they have not won a postseason series since the 1995 National League Division Series. With a solid young core and a veteran at the helm in Terry Francona, they have a chance to end both of those droughts this year.
How will the Reds pass the Mets and make the playoffs?
Hunter Greene leads an elite Reds rotation
If the Reds do make the postseason, they are going to be a hard team to beat in a three-game series. Hunter Greene has been solid since returning from injury, Andrew Abbott made the All-Star team, and Brady Singer has been a great trade pickup. The Mets, on the other hand, are calling up prospects in a desperate attempt to get any value out of their starting pitching.
Winning games 1-0 is not the ideal recipe for any team in any sport, but the Reds have the pitching staff to make a run. Their bullpen has not been excellent, but Emilio Pagan has been a solid closer this year. Length from the rotation is the biggest key to a huge September from the Reds and a playoff berth.
Elly De La Cruz must turn things around
The Reds have an elite shortstop in Elly De La Cruz, but he has not been that offensively of late. Since the All-Star Break, he has just one home run, 14 RBI, and a .657 OPS in 35 games. Cincy is 18-17 in that stretch, proving that they need their shortstop to make the playoffs. His season-long numbers are still in a good spot, a 3.5 bWAR and .799 OPS, but he needs a great September.
Unfortunately for the Reds, this has become a trend for De La Cruz in his three-year career. He has an .848 OPS in 223 games in the first half of seasons in his career. In the second half, he's at .693 in 167 games. If you drill down into just games played in September and October, he has a .682 OPS in 50 games, with just five home runs.
The Reds are not known to spend money in free agency, leading to a massive question surrounding De La Cruz when his team control expires in 2030. He has been a superstar for a team and a city in desperate need of one. He can take a huge leap forward with a historic September to get them into the postseason.
Beat the Mets when given the opportunity
Like most playoff races, this one will likely come down to a head-to-head matchup down the stretch. The Reds started the second half by taking two of three games in Queens. They get another opportunity at home, from September 5-7, and they must win at least two of those games. If they do, they will clinch the tiebreaker that could determine the outcome.
The Reds have home games against the St Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays leading into that set. They need to set up their rotation to have the best opportunity to win the Mets' series. But they will also likely need to win the sets against the Cards and the Jays to keep pace with the Amazins.
That is where the Reds' strength plays into their advantage. If Greene pitches against Toronto, they will have young flamethrower Chase Burns and Abbott to go against the Mets. That will be a key series that they need to win, potentially sweep, to make the postseason.
