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The Kansas City Royals were one of the surprise teams of the first half of the Major League Baseball season. But lately, they've quietly suffered a humbling losing stretch that has left their grand plans of making October in the lurch.
Now obviously, the Royals aren't out of the hunt. In fact, they finished play Tuesday just half a game back of the Boston Red Sox for the final American League playoff spot. But this was never expected to be a playoff team by anyone outside Royals headquarters.
Now that they've come back to earth, it's reasonable to think the Royals selling at the trade deadline might still be on the table. That's the last outcome their fans are currently hoping for, but with a young core, it could end up being the best move for the long-term success of the franchise.
It all depends on how the next five weeks play out. And we've got to be prepared for any scenario, so let's examine three Royals who have to be watched closely as the 2024 MLB trade deadline approaches.
RHP James McArthur
For weeks, the discourse around the Royals was that the team needed to add to the bullpen, which has been one of the most visible areas of struggle for K.C. this season. But if things start to go south, the switch could flip lightning-fast from buying in the pen to selling it away.
As the de facto Royals closer, James McArthur is the number one arm to watch for every possible reason. If he pitches well and saves a bunch of close games, he could force the front office to go out and get him some support. If he instead blows a bunch of close games, he could be on his way out of town.
At 6-foot-7, 230 pounds with a heavy sinker averaging 95.1 miles per hour, McArthur has all the tools to be an excellent big-league reliever. But it hasn't clicked for him, particularly in the closer role. He's sporting a 4.67 ERA through 29 appearances, with 13 saves in 17 opportunities.
And while we're focusing specifically on McArthur here, the same principle applies to most of the arms the Royals have in the bullpen. John Schreiber already got traded once this year and would be a very enticing piece for most contenders. Will Smith is on a one-year deal with his infamous World Series streak to keep alive. And Nick Anderson would be a hot commodity too if the floodgates open on selling.
UTIL Adam Frazier
The obligatory preface here is that clearly, Adam Frazier isn't having a good season. His .596 OPS and 69 OPS+ are the worst of his career and what's more, he just landed on the 10-day injured list. But a player like Frazier is always in demand around the deadline and as long as he's healthy enough to play, he'll be on the minds of GMs around baseball.
Frazier has always been a capable utility man, but this season, he's turned that up a notch. He's played 31 games at second base, 10 in right field, 6 in left field, and even one at third base. And though his expected offensive stats aren't good, they're still a lot better than the numbers he's actually putting up, suggesting some positive regression could be in order.
If Frazier is healthy and the Royals keep losing, he's getting traded. If Frazier is healthy and the Royals start winning again, he still might get traded, because he's basically an extra body on this young, dynamic team. Whether or not Kansas City would ever admit it, half the reason they signed him on a one-year deal in the first place was to trade him. That's the life of a journeyman in MLB.
3B Cayden Wallace
If the Royals do become buyers, they run into a new problem altogether. The farm system is laughably bad at the moment and is one of the biggest things holding the franchise back right now. The Royals don't have a single prospect in MLB Pipeline's current Top 100, which is almost inconceivable for a team that hasn't made the playoffs in almost a full decade.
However, if they're looking to make a big trade, perhaps for some outfield help or a big arm, they could dangle Cayden Wallace as trade bait. The 22-year-old third baseman had a big college career at Arkansas and is currently having a solid offensive season in Double-A. The Royals' No. 2 prospect is a sturdy 5-foot-11, 205 pounds, and moves well with a big arm at third base.
If you're in the Royals' front office, you're probably hoping to see Wallace playing to the left of Bobby Witt Jr. at some point in the next couple of seasons. But if the team really thinks 2024 can be a playoff season for them, they have to consider dealing a prospect with real value. As encouraging as the Royals have been at times, they have obvious needs, and you need to give something to get something in this league.
