Dylan Cease represents the exact type of pitcher the Los Angeles Dodgers should be targeting this offseason, and if they're willing to make a calculated investment, they can pry him away from the San Diego Padres. The right-handed starter finished the 2025 season with a 4.55 ERA in limited action, which has artificially suppressed his market value heading into free agency. However, Cease's underlying stuff and track record of durability make him an ideal candidate for a team looking to bolster their rotation without committing to an astronomical long-term deal.
The Dodgers currently have plenty of firepower on their roster, but their starting pitching depth remains a legitimate concern heading into 2026. Even though Los Angeles won back-to-back World Series championships, the front office under Andrew Friedman has always been aggressive about making calculated upgrades. Cease represents a unique opportunity because his down 2025 season has positioned him as an undervalued asset compared to where he truly ranks among free-agent starting pitchers.
Why Dylan Cease Fits LA
Cease should command a five-year deal worth approximately $145 million in the open market, translating to roughly $29 million per year in average annual value. This contract represents fair value for a pitcher entering his age-30 season with proven durability and real swing-and-miss stuff. The Dodgers have shown throughout their recent championship run that they're willing to spend on premium talent, and Cease fits that profile without requiring the massive long-term commitment that other top-tier starters demand.
What makes Cease particularly attractive to Los Angeles is his consistency. He has made 33 starts per year on average throughout his career, and when you secure that volume from a pitcher with legitimate stuff, you're getting tremendous value. The 2025 season was clearly an outlier, and most evaluators within baseball believe that Cease is poised for a strong rebound in 2026. This represents a perfect opportunity for the Dodgers to acquire an ace-caliber pitcher at a reasonable rate.
The Padres understand they're in a precarious position with Cease hitting the open market. San Diego extended him a qualifying offer worth $22.025 million for one year, but it's unlikely Cease accepts that when he can secure a massive multi-year deal elsewhere. Yu Darvish is out for the entire 2026 season due to reconstructive elbow surgery, which means the Padres' rotation is in shambles heading into the new year.
The Dodgers' Strategic Move Forward
For the Dodgers to successfully land Cease, they need to structure a deal that exceeds the projected $145 million baseline while still remaining fiscally responsible within their organizational framework. A five-year, $160 million contract with $32 million in average annual value would be the perfect package to lure Cease away from the Padres. This offer sits comfortably above the open market projection but doesn't venture into the territory of generational contracts like Juan Soto's $765 million deal or the recent extensions given to elite pitchers.
Dylan Cease is my #1 Free Agent Pitcher
While his 2025 results were disappointing, he did not miss a start for the 6th consecutive season. He also registered the 3rd best K% (29.8%) in MLB while keeping his BB% in check. He is a clear-cut #1/2 SP pic.twitter.com/6CuCcFx0UO
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) November 7, 2025
The beauty of this contract structure is that it keeps the Dodgers competitive while maintaining financial flexibility for future moves. Los Angeles can afford this investment because they've already proven their ability to manage massive payrolls while remaining championship contenders. Cease joins a rotation already strengthened by the return of seven pitchers who contributed in 2025, along with prospects River Ryan and Gavin Stone returning from major surgeries.
Andrew Friedman has been chasing Cease for years, even attempting to wrangle a third team into a blockbuster trade with the White Sox during the 2023-2024 offseason. Now that the pitcher has finally hit the open market, the Dodgers have the perfect opportunity to complete a deal that's eluded them for the better part of two years. A $160 million investment positioned as a five-year commitment represents the ideal balance between competitiveness and financial responsibility, making it the perfect contract for Los Angeles to steal one of the finest starters in this free-agent class.
