The 2025 MLB offseason has turned its focus toward one of the league’s most intriguing questions — will Kyle Tucker’s 2026 free agency still command a $400 million contract after his uneven finish to 2025? Once viewed as a near lock for a record-setting deal, Tucker’s late-season decline and injuries have clouded the outlook for one of baseball’s most consistent stars.
In an article written by MLB’s Mark Feinsand, he captured comments from several executives across Major League Baseball who weighed in on Tucker’s market value following his second-half slump. Their insights frame a pivotal moment for both the player and the Cubs’ offseason plans, as teams gauge whether Tucker’s long-term potential still warrants a mega deal.
“That’s why it’s risky to give up assets for a player in his walk year – even a star player like Tucker,” one AL executive said. “If he leaves, was it worth it for the Cubs?”
“It’s probably safe to say the early-season exuberance around his potential contract has cooled,” an NL executive said. “I think $400 million would be a very risky proposition.”
Despite that tempered sentiment, most around the league agree the left-handed slugger’s talent keeps him among the elite entering the 2026 free-agent market. Even with injuries limiting his production, the 28-year-old right fielder still posted a 143 OPS+ with 22 home runs, 73 RBIs, and 25 steals over 136 games — a reminder of his balanced skill set and impact at the plate.
“He’s still the top free agent this year,” another NL executive told Feinsand. “If he’s healthy, he’s one of the best players in the game and he’s in his prime. He’s going to get paid.”
One executive predicted a revised structure. “I would guess more years and a lower AAV, but it should be in that type of ballpark. He’s young, hits righties and lefties, and he’s a good defender. There’s an easy story to why he was a bit off in the second half, but nothing that should be a long-term concern.”
Tucker’s situation reflects the modern MLB reality — performance fluctuations and injuries can drastically reshape a player’s earning ceiling, even for a player of Tucker’s caliber. His case will likely define the tone of the upcoming free-agent cycle, testing how much teams still value consistency and long-term investment in star talent.
