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With the first pick in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft, the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Paul Skenes, a pitcher from LSU. As fans waited patiently for Skenes' highly anticipated call-up after dominating AAA, he eventually made his MLB debut on May 11.
However, San Diego Padres rookie Jackson Merrill has been an absolute stud for the Friars. He constantly delivers for the club, whether it's a clutch home run or a fantastic play on defense, and is posting some pretty great numbers this season.
So, what does Paul Skenes need to do to secure the illustrious award?
Paul Skenes must show continued dominance on mound
Firstly, Skenes must continue to dominate on the mound. His performance so far has set him apart with an incredibly high K/9 of 11.2 and a low ERA at 2.23 in 109 innings of work. Maintaining or improving these statistics will be crucial as the season progresses and ends.
He should focus on his control, as he does tend to walk a lot of batters. This approach boosts his stats, such as WHIP and his K/BB ratio, but it also directly contributes to his team's success, enhancing his ROY candidacy.
Durability is another critical factor. Skenes needs to prove he can handle the workload of a full major league season without succumbing to fatigue or injury. His fastball tops out at 103, which is unnatural for the human body to handle. Managing his innings effectively, without a drop in performance, will demonstrate his readiness and reliability as a major league pitcher.
Had he started the whole season, we could also be talking about him in the MVP conversation. If Skenes can stay healthy throughout his career, he may get one. His resilience will be crucial, especially in the latter part of the season when voters are paying close attention.
Skenes should also seek to excel in high-profile games, particularly against strong teams and in direct matchups against other top rookies like Merrill. These performances are highly visible and tend to stick in the minds of voters. Dominating these matchups not only builds his reputation but also directly impacts the Rookie of the Year race by setting him apart from his peers.
While Merrill is making an impact everyday, Skenes brings more value to his respective team than Merrill does. Skenes has a WAR (Wins above replacement) of 4.6. WAR is a single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add. This value includes defensive support and includes additional value for high leverage situations.
Merrill on the other hand has a WAR of 3.6, a whole point lower than Skenes. While Merrill leads all qualified rookie position players in home runs and OPS+, Skenes leads all qualified rookie pitchers in ERA and WHIP. If Skenes wants to keep the advantage over Merrill, he will have to stay consistent.
Pirates impact down the stretch
The overall impact on his team cannot be overstated. If Paul Skenes can be a key factor in leading the Pirates to win ballgames down the stretch, it greatly enhances his narrative for the ROY award. There is this narrative among fans and voters that think players on playoff teams deserve awards over the players of teams that don't. This would give a boost to Merrill's chances. For Skenes, his storyline of being a transformative player for his team could be the deciding factor in a tight race with Merrill.
Skenes' path to outshining Merrill for the NL ROY hinges on consistent dominance, durability, visibility in high-stakes games, and a clear impact on his team’s success. But staying healthy might be the most important thing Skenes will need to do in order to secure the award for himself.
By focusing on these areas, Skenes can not only enhance his chances at the Rookie of the Year award but also lay a strong foundation for a successful MLB career.
