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The San Diego Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have posted a league-best 22-7 record since the All-Star break to grab hold of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. Outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr has been out for the entire stretch with a stress reaction in his right thigh. Padres manager Mike Schildt told reporters that Tatis is getting close.
“He did some sprint work today, which is great — around 70%,” Shildt told reporters after the Padres' loss to the Mets on Thursday, per ESPN. “Which is a clear sign of progression. I did meet with him. We have a looser timetable now, but we won't really share it. … But he's definitely progressing to get back to play. It's good news.”
This is amazing news for the Padres and their fans, who are having quite the bounce-back season. They missed the playoffs in 2023 after making a run to the National League Championship Series the year before. Juan Soto was dealt to the Yankees but the offense has more than held its own.
Rookie Jackson Merrill has shined in the outfield for the Padres in Tatis' and Soto's absences. Merrill has taken the lead in the NL Rookie of the Year race thanks to his .289 average and 71 RBIs. If he continues his hot play and Tatis comes back healthy, the Padres could make a deep run in the playoffs.
Padres' chances in National League playoffs
The Padres have not only launched into a Wild Card spot but have also put pressure on the Dodgers in the NL West. They sit four-and-a-half games back of the Dodgers and just a half-game back of the Diamondbacks in the division. If they can run down the Dodgers, they would likely clinch a bye into the Division Series and set themselves up well for a deep run.
According to Fangraphs, there is only an 8.2% chance the Padres win the NL West. Their current Wild Card matchup would be with the Diamondbacks. The three-game series features all of the games at the higher seed's home park, so winning the mini-race with Arizona is also key.
When the playoffs begin, the Padres will lean on their starting rotation to get them through the opening rounds. New addition Dylan Cease threw a no-hitter and has been riding the momentum of that ever since. Michael King has been spectacular as the return for Soto, and Matt Waldron was putting together a good season until a recent rough patch ended with him in AAA.
Their All-Star lineup has been led by the unlikely duo of Merrill and veteran Jurickson Profar. Slotting Tatis between those two in the lineup makes one of the scariest trios in the league and that doesn't include Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Luis Arraez. The Padres will be able to take on any team in the playoffs.
Tatis will have to hit the ground running when he returns. He hit .279 with 14 home runs in the 82 games before the injury, a pace that would rank among his best seasons since his PED suspension.
