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The Toronto Blue Jays underperformed massively in 2024, winning just 74 games and finishing dead last in the AL East after four straight winning seasons, three of which they qualified for the Wild Card Round. While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was back to being at his best, the rest of the roster fell flat on their faces, with Bo Bichette being the chief offender among the team's many underperformers.
The start of the new season brings forth renewed hope for the Blue Jays — hope that they can find their way into the playoff mix despite residing in the stacked AL East. Regression to the mean will do wonders for the Blue Jays, and the addition of Anthony Santander should help cover for a lot of the offensive deficiencies that Toronto's defense-oriented outfield were responsible for in 2024.
Of course, regression to the mean is not guaranteed. But offensive improvements from the Blue Jays will scarcely mean anything for their playoff push if they do not address the glaring weakness that plagued the team last year.
This sore spot for the Blue Jays remains the fatal flaw that they may have to deal with in 2025.
Did the Blue Jays improve their bullpen enough?
Pitching was a pain point for the Blue Jays all throughout the 2024 season. The pitchers atop their rotation, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios, saw their numbers drop off considerably, and then Toronto decided to sell off Yusei Kikuchi, thinning the team's starting pitching depth even further.
However, the Blue Jays' biggest weakness last season was their bullpen. They ranked 29th last season in bullpen ERA, at 4.82, a figure that is somehow worse than that of the Chicago White Sox's. Their bullpen allowed the most home runs last season, at 92 — 10 dingers worse than the 29th and 28th ranked teams in the league (White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays). And to put the cherry on top of this crappy cake, their bullpen was responsible for -2.6 WAR (per Fangraphs) — a truly horrific number that contributed big time to their sub-.500 season.
Toronto simply couldn't keep it together during the middle innings, and that kind of performance for a team that ranked 22nd in bullpen innings pitched means that the relief corps pitched very poorly without having to log a workload that ranks among the heaviest in the MLB.
Of course, the Blue Jays took some steps to rectify this big issue of theirs. They signed their former first-round pick back in 2014, Jeff Hoffman, to a three-year, $33 million deal to step into the closer's role, while they also brought back a familiar face in Yimi Garcia on a two-year, $15 million contract.
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Garcia had an ERA of 2.70 before the Blue Jays traded him to the Seattle Mariners, so he instills confidence as someone who can flourish within the Blue Jays' infrastructure. Meanwhile, Hoffman recorded 3.5 WAR (per Fangraphs) in two seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, recording an impressive ERA of 2.28 across 118.2 innings pitched.
Those two will be late-game weapons for the Blue Jays, and even something close to respectable bullpen play will do wonders for this team and help them inch closer to contending status. But bullpen performance is very volatile, and the Blue Jays would do well by adding another reliever who misses plenty of bats.
However, the Blue Jays may not have the prospect capital to swing a trade for an elite reliever should they find themselves in contending position come midseason. The hope is that the Blue Jays hit on their signings to turn their most glaring weakness into a strength.
Can the Blue Jays score enough runs?
For a team with a feared middle of the order hitter in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays scored too few runs in 2024. They ranked 23rd in runs scored last season, a step down from their 15th-ranked offense in 2023 and fourth-ranked offense in 2022 — seasons in which they won a total of 181 games.
There could very well be a few black holes in the Blue Jays' lineup next season; Andres Gimenez, their major offseason pickup via trade, is excellent on the field, but his production at the plate has been on the decline since his breakout 2022 campaign. George Springer is on an age-related decline. Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho, while capable of some power production, struggle to get on base.
A return to league-average run production or better, as well as improved production from the bullpen and more rotation stability will be the Blue Jays' recipe for success this upcoming season. There are a lot of variables in play, but if plenty of things went wrong for them in 2024, surely plenty of things can go right for them in 2025.
