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The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the most surprising teams in the American League, holding the AL East lead. They lead the Boston Red Sox by 4.5 games with 52 games to play. The Blue Jays have not won the division since 2015 and have not made the playoffs since 2023. What do they have to do to clinch the division and hold off the surging Red Sox?
The Blue Jays made additions at the MLB trade deadline and in the offseason to improve their roster, but have not seen the results yet. Their blistering hot stretch has been mostly thanks to players who have been in Toronto in previous seasons. George Springer has revitalized his career, Vladimir Guerrero Jr has been excellent, and Bo Bichette leads the AL in hits. If the Blue Jays are going to win the division, they need great performances from the players currently on the injured list.
Shane Bieber must save the Blue Jays' trade deadline
The MLB trade deadline was active this year, but starting pitchers were not dealt at a high volume. Toronto went a unique route to solidify their rotation, picking up Shane Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians. The 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner has not thrown an MLB pitch since April 2024 while recovering from an elbow injury.
The good news for the Blue Jays is that Bieber has been solid in six minor league rehab appearances. In four appearances in the Guardians' system, he threw 11.1 innings and allowed just two runs. After the deadline, he joined the AAA Buffalo Bisons, where he has allowed four runs in 10.2 innings across two starts.
When Bieber makes his way to the major leagues, the Blue Jays need him to dominate. They have not had an elite ace this season, and if Bieber could get somewhere close to that level, Toronto will have more success.
Anthony Santander has been disappointing
The Blue Jays tried to sign many of the biggest free-agent names in the past two years. Despite losing out on Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Roki Sasaki, they were able to swing a deal for Anthony Santander. After hitting 41 homers with the Baltimore Orioles last year, expectations were high for him in Toronto. But in 50 games, he has six homers and has been out with an injury since May 29.
Santander's injured shoulder has kept him out of the lineup, but the Blue Jays have not been missing him too much. When he comes back, he could cycle in at designated hitter and in the outfield. If he picks up where he left off in 2024, it will be a great thing for Toronto. But if Santander continues his .179/.273/.304 slash line from this season, he won't have a spot in the lineup.
The Blue Jays will win the AL East if Santander comes back and rakes like they expected him to at the beginning of the year. If he does not, that puts a lot of pressure on Ernie Clement and Addison Barger, who do not have the pedigree Santander has.
Can Toronto win the AL East?
The Blue Jays have a 78.1% chance of winning the AL East, according to FanGraphs. Boston is at 9.9%, lower than the Yankees at 11.9%. But the status quo won't be enough to hold off the charging Sox. Roman Anthony has been sensational, Garrett Crochet could win the AL Cy Young, and Fenway Park is on fire.
The Blue Jays host the Red Sox from September 23-25 for three games that could determine the AL East. They have three games against the Rays after that, but the set against Boston could lock them into a bye or send them to the Wild Card round.
